We may be one inflationary spike away from a deflationary bust because proper inflation will destroy people’s ability to pay off their debt and cause more economic wreckage going forward.
Interest rates are the lowest they have ever been, whether we measure in terms of corporate bonds, US Treasurys, or mortgage rates.

Partial Recovery Expected For U.S. Q3 GDP

04:41am, Wednesday, 19'th Aug 2020
The unprecedented decline in in US economic output in Q2 is currently on track to recover less than half the loss in Q3, according to several GDP nowcasts compiled by Capital Spectator.

The Ecommerce Surge

04:21am, Wednesday, 19'th Aug 2020
Both the UK and the USA have given official statistics on how ecommerce and retail have changed during lockdown.

Optimism Persists Despite U.S. Stimulus Stalemate

03:33am, Wednesday, 19'th Aug 2020
The good news is that federal unemployment benefits have been extended by President Donald Trump's executive order last week.
These days we are blessed with a variety of high frequency data sets, which are very helpful in a rapidly changing environment.
Inflation is manifesting itself all across the market, and multiple indicators are giving confirmation and confidence to lean into the inflation trades.
In the Keynesian model, fiscal stimulus boosts demand during a recession by making up for the decline in disposable income during a period of falling GDP.

Don't Count On The August Curse

04:27am, Tuesday, 18'th Aug 2020
August is the worst-performing month for stocks, but not this year. Expect a pause that refreshes for the S&P in the very near term.
This week, despite repeated attempts, the bulls were unable to close above all-time highs solidly. As they say, it was close, but no cigar.
The US economic recovery depends on three factors, namely, COVID-19, the Fed, and Congress. Capitol Hill failed to deliver the next round of stimulus and next week will likely be the blame game.
The jobs market has come back somewhat, although gains until now are largely the low hanging fruit Thanks to the stimulus, consumer spending has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
In a number of my recent blog posts, I have written about the V-shaped recovery unfolding in both the equity market and the economy.

Rates Rising... Stocks To Follow

02:19pm, Saturday, 15'th Aug 2020
The 10yr Treasury rises to 0.7% from 0.55% lows on Aug. 4th.
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