A very red day for NIO stock price after a -5.26% fall in the Wednesday trading session

The NIO stock price fell by -5.26% on the last day (Wednesday, 8th May 2024) from $5.51 to $5.22. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.33% from a day low at $5.11 to a day high of $5.28. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 25.78% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 11 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 54 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $281.29 million.

On Apr 02, 2024, it was reported that Barclays gave NIO a "Underweight" grade with a "downgrade" action.

The stock lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $5.64 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift.Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -22.76% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $2.66 and $4.35 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

The NIO stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $5.37. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $4.60. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, May 06, 2024, and so far it has fallen -8.26%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $4.50 and $4.49.There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, NIO finds support just below today's level at $4.50. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $4.49 and $4.00.

This stock may move very much during the day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.170 between high and low, or 3.33%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 6.58%.

NIO holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.