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Interest Rates And Yield Curve Control, Part 2

05:33am, Friday, 14'th Aug 2020
The three-month forward currency hedge is very common. Derivative swaps in the intermediate and longer end are based on the differentials in interest rates.

10-Year T-Note Low-Cost Contrarian Play

03:43pm, Thursday, 13'th Aug 2020
Interest rates measure the cost of money, which means they eventually help determine the cost of everything else.

3 Things I Think I Think - Moar Stuff

01:50pm, Thursday, 13'th Aug 2020
Homeownership is massively overrated. I'm on record saying that I am more concerned about inflation this time around than I was in 2009 when I was somewhat famously a lowflationist.

Circling Back

09:19am, Thursday, 13'th Aug 2020
There is no question that we are in a crisis. I have lived through a number of them and you have to circle back to your underlying assumptions about markets and triple check these assumptions are stil
Bill Nelson is a Chief Economist and Executive Vice President at the Bank Policy Institute, and formerly a Deputy Director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board.
Stock market valuation in line with corporate bond yields. Data revisions show GDP profits at new high in Q4 2019.

July 2020 Yield Curve Update

11:27am, Sunday, 02'nd Aug 2020
The Fed is failing us. It started out great.
Previously, we noted the market remained confined to its consolidation channel. That remained the case again this week and keeps our allocation models primarily on hold at the moment.

Avoiding A Second Wave

06:50am, Sunday, 02'nd Aug 2020
About two-thirds of this month's comment is about COVID-19 and the risk of a second wave. Without an effective vaccine, one of the most important priorities should be increasing the speed of testing.
It is a big week for data, with a focus on employment. The payroll employment report has been a bright spot in the economic rebound story.  Is it a little too bright? Corporate earnings reports, the

Navigating The Pandemic And Beyond

12:43am, Sunday, 02'nd Aug 2020
We still expect the economy to remain on a recovery path but it will not be as quick as earlier assumed.
Deflation remains a more credible risk, not inflation. The output gap suggests core inflation could sink below 0.5% in the coming years.
Total assets on the Fed's balance sheet for the week ended July 29 fell by $16 billion from the prior week to $6.95 trillion.
Given the recent loss of economic momentum, it's also possible that the Fed adjusts its purchases of U.S.
Since 1960, savings as a percentage of disposable personal income has ranged from roughly 3-15%, holding within a 5-10% range since 2010.
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