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Month-End Gyrations And The Fed's Ad Hocery

08:03am, Monday, 31'st Aug 2020
Markets are searching for direction at month-end. The dollar is mostly higher, though the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar are resisting the tug.

Falling Down The Jackson Hole

07:58am, Monday, 31'st Aug 2020
A Pyrrhic victory for stocks. The Fed delivers more of the same at Jackson Hole.

Seriously, This Isn't Difficult

12:11pm, Sunday, 30'th Aug 2020
The lower rates go, and the longer they stay lower, the more they signal lack of faith in the Federal Reserve to change the situation.

A Look At The Price Action

11:26am, Sunday, 30'th Aug 2020
The idea that the Federal Reserve would tolerate higher inflation to compensate for the undershoot would on its face be dollar negative.

Weekly Commentary: It's About Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

10:55am, Sunday, 30'th Aug 2020
The S&P 500 jumped 3.3% (up 8.6% y-t-d), and the Dow rose 2.6% (up 0.4%). Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at 0.095%.
The Federal Reserve released the results of its multiyear framework review alongside a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Kansas City Fed's Economic Policy Forum on 27-28 August.

Rates: Lower For Longer

09:52am, Sunday, 30'th Aug 2020
We anticipated the next downturn would mark a further step toward loose monetary policy, piloting toward zero or negative interest rates and more asset purchases.
In July, for the fourth month in a row, money supply growth surged to an all-time high, following new all-time highs in April, May, and June that came in the wake of unprecedented quantitative easing,
The deficit narrowed during July after months of record shortfalls in federal tax revenues. During April, May, and June of this year, deficits surged to unprecedented highs as economic activity dried

The Mad Hatter's Tea Party

02:03am, Sunday, 30'th Aug 2020
Consider where our economy is, where yields are, where the equity market is. Look at the number of new companies being brought to market with no revenues or earnings.
Labor Day marks the unofficial end to summer.  Many return to work, but the circumstances are much different this year.

Navigating The Years Ahead

01:40am, Sunday, 30'th Aug 2020
We believe that long term inflationary pressures will stay muted. Powell's speech Navigating the Decade Ahead was pivotal for investors as he presented the Fed's revised view of the inter-relationship

Central Bank Week In Review For 8/24-8/28

05:14pm, Friday, 28'th Aug 2020
The Fed made two fundamental changes to its interpretation of its policy mandate. Unemployment can run far below 5% without sparking inflationary pressures.

The Impact Of Rising Inflation

09:59am, Friday, 28'th Aug 2020
As expected, there were no mentions for changes to the FOMC’s forward guidance in either Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole or the statement released by the Fed.

3 Things I Think I Think - Lumbering Along

09:01am, Friday, 28'th Aug 2020
Lumber prices have tripled since the March bottom. It’s one of the most interesting economic developments since the pandemic started.
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