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No New Highs For High Yield

02:10am, Tuesday, 15'th Sep 2020
Performance in the high yield market hasn't been quite as strong as the S&P 500. While total return levels in the high yield market are important to track, spreads in high yield debt relative to treas

Why We Stay Moderately Pro-Risk

02:10am, Tuesday, 15'th Sep 2020
The improving macro backdrop, a strong risk rally and rising volatility leave us moderately pro-risk over coming months, with a preference for credit.
The consumer price index for August was reported up +0.4%, the third straight increase. On a YoY basis inflation is still pretty subdued at 1.3%.
Many currently believe “bear markets” and “crashes” are a relic of the past. Maybe that is indeed the case.

The Market: Being Stalked By The Bear

04:47am, Monday, 14'th Sep 2020
Last week’s market a stunning reversal… maybe. Tech: A pandemic winner.
Revolving consumer credit is a window into whatever is beyond sentimental perceptions. What consumers are actively doing with regard to their own personal perceptions and their own personal risks.

Consumer Price Index: August Core At 1.74%

09:56am, Saturday, 12'th Sep 2020
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Consumer Price Index data this morning (Sept. 11).

Spread Monitor: Looking Good

01:49pm, Friday, 11'th Sep 2020
Current swap spreads in the US are very low, while spreads in the Eurozone have clearly moved into healthy territory after spending many years in not-so-healthy territory.

Inflation, Deflation And Other Fallacies

07:33am, Friday, 11'th Sep 2020
A progressive economy will see more and better goods and services at lower prices, while for a failing economy the opposite is true.
Fear factor is still strong and in favor of gold as investors fear a second shutdown. Inflation expectations are on the rise, further boosting gold's prospects.

What Goes Up Has Definitely Been Coming Down

01:19am, Friday, 11'th Sep 2020
New hiring has now recouped nearly 50% of the total job losses that occurred during March and April. The unemployment rate shrank 1.8 percentage points in August, falling to 8.4%.

Fed's New Policy Risks 1970s Rerun

12:42am, Friday, 11'th Sep 2020
The Fed's new average inflation targeting policy is moot if inflation stays low. But if average inflation rises above the target, the central bank may find itself well behind the curve.

No Significant Yields And Not For Years

11:28am, Thursday, 10'th Sep 2020
The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States was once a player in the bond markets. Now it is the dominator, controller, and fixer of U.S.
Powell said that instead of targeting an annualized inflation rate of 2%, the institution would allow the rise in the cost of living to go above that rate for long periods.
The idea is to continue robust monetary pumping until the economic data points toward a strong economy.
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