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Hanging Out With Alice

08:27am, Thursday, 03'rd Sep 2020
Looking at the markets these days it is quite easy to find yourself lost. Equities at all-time highs, valuations at numbers that make no sense, and tech stocks shooting off like Roman Candles.

Fed Dials Up Inflation Target... Own Gold

07:20am, Thursday, 03'rd Sep 2020
The Fed will start overshooting its inflation targeting. The dollar will weaken in the long term, but could have a short relief rally.

August 2020 Yield Curve

06:09am, Thursday, 03'rd Sep 2020
After really flattening out last month, the yield curve perked up in August. It was especially helped by recent Fed discussion about allowing for more catch-up inflation and a more of a symmetrical 2%

The Link Between Low Rates And A Vibrant Economy

10:31am, Wednesday, 02'nd Sep 2020
Low rates are also supposed to encourage business borrowing and boost employment, but often it also encourages savers to take on more risk than they should when they search for higher yields.
Fed Chair Jay Powell announced a new inflation target policy that allows for inflation to rise moderately over its 2% target for a period of time.
Treasury yields bear-steepened. Powell comments on desire for more inflation not immediately recognizable in yields.

Yikes

02:29am, Wednesday, 02'nd Sep 2020
One of the things to remember about investing is that the higher the price you pay today, for a given stream of future cash flows, the lower the long-term returns you can expect.

Rationalization: Low Rates Justify High Valuations

01:23am, Wednesday, 02'nd Sep 2020
The basic premise of the interest rate/valuation argument has its roots in the Fed Model, which states that when the earnings yield on stocks is higher than the Treasury yield, you invest in stocks, a

Fed's Gonna Let The Economy Run 'Hot, Hot, Hot'

09:26pm, Tuesday, 01'st Sep 2020
Forward guidance will be an integral policy tool going forward in order to try and manage expectations and hopefully, volatility as well.
Over the past five months, there has been no evidence of capital flight to the US. A large rise in the expected inflation rate in parallel with a flat nominal interest rate equates to a large decline
The major indexes rallied for the fourth straight week with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ gaining more than 3.0% last week.

July Income And Consumption

01:55am, Tuesday, 01'st Sep 2020
Consumption is almost to the nadir of the Great Financial Crisis. We still have a long way to go.

He Passed

08:36am, Monday, 31'st Aug 2020
Chair Powell did not disappoint markets as he has made it clear that the government will let inflation run to make sure that the economy keeps humming along.
The Fed's new strategy statement will likely result in higher inflation and more volatile inflation. The higher inflation is welcome, at least by the Fed.

The Virus, The Elections, And The Fed

08:13am, Monday, 31'st Aug 2020
The Federal Reserve's recent decision to adopt a radical change in its policy focus. Equity prices are making new all-time highs and interest rates are marking all-time lows.
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