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This report finds that tight labour markets ahead of a recession cause employment to fall less than normal. So, given that we expect a shallow recession in the eurozone, labour shortages are not going
The European Central Bank's job is not yet finished. Far from it. Our view is that the ECB will phase out reinvestments of its Asset Purchase Programme portfolio throughout 2023 by gradually removing
Slow out the gates, but the ECB is now hiking at a record pace. Are higher rates already having an impact?
Quantitative tightening will come into sharper relief towards the end of the year. On the dovish side, the ECB noted that substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation has now been

The Eurozone Flirts With Double-Digit Inflation

01:27pm, Wednesday, 19'th Oct 2022
The final estimate of eurozone inflation has been adjusted down from 10% to 9.9%. When looking at the details, there's little to be optimistic about.
The minutes of the ECB's September meeting delivered a couple of interesting insights. Though quantitative tightening currently looks unlikely, it will come eventually.

Energy Shock Spurs Europe's Recession

10:45am, Monday, 12'th Sep 2022
We think the energy crisis will spur a recession in Europe. The ECB is trying to fight inflation without recognizing the costs.
The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 in August, down from 49.8 and further beneath the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction. Weak demand and efforts to reduce high invent
High inflation and low unemployment will push up wage growth in 2022 and 2023. At the same time, labour productivity growth is expected to come down significantly.
The credit cocktail has changed after the European Central Bank announced a 50bp rate hike. Thus, we conclude credit is now looking more attractive due to lower rates and the value priced in.

ECB May Limit Hikes As Recession Nears

02:20pm, Monday, 18'th Jul 2022
Europe is facing the risk of an energy shock-driven recession and periphery stress. That's why we think the ECB will stop hiking earlier than the Fed.
The market now has more than a 50% probability attached to a 100bp hike from the Fed in July. We think this is overdone, and we think the bond market agrees with us.

The ECB And Mounting Eurozone Debt

11:21pm, Monday, 11'th Jul 2022
European debt ratios have barely budged since 2012. Some Eurozone countries, including Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain have spent the past decade deleveraging and their debt ratios have

Fears Of Another Eurozone Crisis Are Overblown

09:50am, Friday, 08'th Jul 2022
The reason for the new concern over another euro crisis is clear: the ECB's announcement of normalising monetary policy; i.e., the end of negative interest rates, a potential further series of policy
Eurozone consumption is still experiencing a temporary bump from catch-up spending on services, although today's PMI figures are already starting to cast doubt on that view. This summer might still se
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