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Credit Markets And The Coronavirus Threat

10:21am, Wednesday, 04'th Mar 2020
Some sectors are more exposed to coronavirus. If the Covid-19 fears continue, we are likely to see similar trends. The leveraged loan price index has fallen fro
The coronavirus has the potential to cause a recession in some countries. EU President Lane offered an excellent explanation of why r* will be low for some time

The Eurozone's Problem: Inflation Is Too Low

04:46am, Wednesday, 26'th Feb 2020
As I've pointed out before, the eurozone has a structural problem, one I don't think it's going to be able to overcome. As an example of this, we can look at th
After the Italian case, global asset markets are now under broad-based pressure. We expect the 10Y Italy-Germany spread to drift wider to 175bp. We suspect the

Europe sheds 4% as Italy gets hit by virus

05:57pm, Monday, 24'th Feb 2020
A sixth person in Italy (NYSEARCA:EWI) has succumbed to the coronavirus, and the county now has more than 200 confirmed cases. Parts of the northern region of the country are all but shut down, and A
Trade data shows continuing weakness. The PBoC cut rates, indicating that Chinese growth for the first quarter of 2020 will probably be weak. Most of the charts
The OECD leading indicators are indicating growth. However, the negative impact of the coronavirus will probably hurt growth. Global equity markets rebounded th

Week Ahead - Turning A Corner On COVID-19

03:16pm, Sunday, 16'th Feb 2020
Once the initial panic has passed, investors have taken the spread of COVID-19 in their stride, a little too much you could argue. Next week is typically among
It's becoming ever clearer that eurozone manufacturing is in recession even if the eurozone economy as a whole is just about managing to keep growing. This isn'
Wall Street's resilience will be tested again as some clarity emerges on whether the Chinese containment efforts were successful in limiting the spread of the v
After a roughly 3.5% advance in the past three sessions, the MSCI Asia Pacific index pulled back with nearly all the markets in the region slipping. The Dow Jon

Dealing With The Next Downturn

11:56am, Friday, 07'th Feb 2020
For 2020, we're not too worried about an economic downturn. In fact, we are expecting some pickup in growth. There's some more room, but in terms of dealing wit
A rotation into non-US equity markets may become evident in 2020, and many macro commodity trading advisors and equity long/short managers may benefit from this

Closing The European Performance Gap

11:57am, Thursday, 06'th Feb 2020
The events that drove 2019’s market rally in Europe - accommodative central bank monetary policy, a clearer Brexit path and progress on a US-China trade deal -
Equities saw strong 2019 performances across the globe. The UK market has lagged equities globally and still trades at a discount on a number of measures. Withi
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