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Why We Like Credit

09:10am, Tuesday, 14'th Jul 2020
We like credit on a strategic basis as valuations compensate for default risks and we prefer credit over equities on a tactical basis.
Manufacturing PMI output indices exhibit stronger correlations with underlying growth rates in official data than month-on-month changes. Recent data point to i
Our base case is that the global economic recovery in its initial stages will be slow and uneven. We assume there will be a gradual easing of lockdowns and a gr

Longer-Term Impact Of COVID-19 On Growth

09:31am, Saturday, 27'th Jun 2020
Despite massive government and central bank stimuli, the global economy is seeing a concerning rise in defaults and delinquencies. According to the Institute of
Asia-Pacific markets followed the US lead and traded higher. Indices in Japan, South Korea, and Australia gained more than 1%. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is u
Moody’s updated its forecast for the global speculative-grade default rate and now expects that it will peak below 10%, slightly lower than projected previously
COVID-19 is catapulting the world into a new era of central banking - helping governments finance growing debt by capping bond yields near zero. Despite some hu

Why The European Recovery Plan Will Likely Fail

05:09am, Wednesday, 17'th Jun 2020
The €750 billion stimulus plan announced by the European Commission has been greeted by many macroeconomic analysts and investment banks with euphoria. The hist

Europe's Economy Tanks

12:17pm, Friday, 01'st May 2020
The news is out, the eurozone collapsed in the first quarter of 2020, dropping at an annual rate of 14.8 percent from the fourth quarter of 2019. Much of Europe

Coronavirus Challenges The European Project

07:30am, Thursday, 30'th Apr 2020
COVID-19 has exposed the European Union's fault lines. For now, ECB bond purchases should hold things together. But ultimately, national governments will need t

Heavy Dollar Amid Month-End Pressure

11:33am, Wednesday, 29'th Apr 2020
South Korea saw March industrial output jump 4.6% or more than three times more than economists expected. Italy, Spain, and France will report Q1 GDP estimates
The US and Europe will likely have different economic trajectories coming out of the coronavirus crisis and Ed Harrison is more optimistic about Europe’s prospe
It sounds bizarre to claim that a monetary zone can have potential problems with both inflation and deflation, but that's where I see the eurozone at present. T
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