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AMZN Stock Analysis Points to Short-Term Bearish Trend with Long-Term Bullish Inclination

StockInvest.us, 2 months ago

Amazon Technical Analysis

The technical analysis of Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) shows that the stock closed at $124.72 on October 3rd, 2023, marking a -3.66% change. The day's trading saw a low of $124.2544 and a high of $128.52. At this price, the stock is currently trading below its 50-day moving average of $134.70 and above its 200-day moving average of $113.34, hinting at a short-term bearish trend but with a long-term bullish inclination.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI14) at 18 indicates an oversold condition. Usually, this metric falls between 0 to 100, where anything below 30 is considered oversold and may indicate an upcoming price pull back or reversal. Furthermore, the MACD, a measure of trend momentum, is currently negative (-0.669031) which suggests a bearish market sentiment towards AMZN in recent time.

The Average True Range (ATR) of the stock is around 3.04, indicating relatively high volatility. The trading volume of around 50.66 million is also slightly lower than the 3-month average volume, which is about 54.11 million. However, the high market cap of $1.29 trillion indicates the company's strong equity base.

Fundamental Analysis

The fundamental analysis of Amazon.com Inc. reveals a mixed picture. The stock has a PE ratio of 98.2, which is above the industry average suggesting that the market has high expectations for the company's future earnings growth.

Moreover, the Earning per Share (EPS) stands at $1.27, indicating a positive earnings performance. The company's future earnings announcement is expected on October 25, 2023, which could have a significant impact on the stock's price.

Amazon The discounted cash flow (DCF) of the stock is $130.01, which is higher than the current market price. This suggests that the stock might be undervalued and can present a potential buying opportunity.

The analysts’ consensus for Amazon is "Buy," with 37 analysts suggesting a "buy," while only 3 suggests to "hold" the shares. The target consensus price lies at $166.1, with a high target of $270 and a low target of $103.

Recent News

In recent news, the tech sector, including Amazon, experienced a decline due to concerns of rising interest rates. Furthermore, the British Office of Communications is considering an investigation into Amazon and Microsoft for dominating the U.K. cloud computing market. That said, Amazon's AWS business segment received a significant boost with the recent Telkomsel deal. Amazon's stock has been under pressure, declining 15% over the last few weeks, but two analysts see a buying opportunity ahead of earnings.

Price Forecast and Recommendation

Based on the technical and fundamental analyses and considering the current oversold condition as per RSI14, the likelihood of a price pullback is expected in the short term. The discounted cash flow analysis also supports the stock's undervaluation hinting at an upward potential. However, it's important to keep an eye on the upcoming earnings announcement.

With consideration of the above factors, it can be projected that for the next trading day on October 4, 2023, the stock would aim to test its resistance level set at $125.98 with a likelihood for further upward movement in the upcoming week.

Given the fundamental indicators, the present undervaluation, consensus recommendation, and news around the stock, the final evaluation for Amazon's stock stands as a "Buy. However, this evaluation should be backed up by individual research and taking into account personal risk tolerance and investment horizon.

Check full Amazon forecast and analysis here.