Centrus Energy Corp. Shows Bullish Momentum with Earnings Beat and Potential Resistance Test at $215.83

Technical Analysis

Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) closed at $213.80 on August 5, 2025, up 1.79% from the prior session. The intraday range between $206.12 and $218.96 indicates continued bullish momentum approaching resistance at $215.83. The stock remains above both its 50-day moving average ($183.31) and 200-day moving average ($106.38), confirming positive medium-to-long-term trend strength. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45 suggests neutral momentum with no immediate overbought or oversold signals. The MACD at 22.10 (3-month) remains positive, further supporting upward momentum. Average True Range (ATR) at $7.40 reflects moderate volatility. Key support is at $192.18, with a defined stop-loss level at $201.83. Volume on the last session was 991,991, slightly below the average of 1.32 million, indicating somewhat subdued but stable trading interest.

For the next trading day (August 6, 2025), LEU is likely to test resistance around $215.83. A breakout above this level could drive prices toward the recent high near $219-$220. Conversely, failure to clear resistance may induce a pullback toward support near $192-$201. Over the coming week, given the positive earnings momentum and chart structure, a sustained uptrend is probable barring broader market weakness.

Fundamental Analysis

LEU reported Q2 2025 earnings of $1.59 per share, substantially beating consensus estimates of $0.78 and marking a solid performance despite a decline from $1.89 in Q2 2024. Revenue contracted to $154.5 million from $189.0 million year-over-year, reflecting current market challenges but offset by improved operational efficiency and contract milestones. Net income stood at $28.9 million with a very strong cash balance of $833 million as of June 30, 2025.

The company successfully completed Phase 2 of its HALEU contract and secured Phase 3 commitments valued at $110 million through mid-2026, demonstrating robust backlog visibility tied to the Department of Energy’s nuclear fuel supply chain — a key competitive advantage with strategic national importance.

Centrus’s trailing twelve months EPS of $6.45 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.15 imply pricing premium, reflective of growth prospects in advanced nuclear fuel production. The DCF intrinsic valuation around $89.46 indicates the stock is trading well above its discounted cash flow estimate, suggesting a potentially stretched valuation relative to conservative cash flow projections.

Consensus analyst targets show a median price of $167 with a high of $205, implying some downside risk from current levels. However, the current buy/hold consensus (4 buys, 2 holds, no sells) supports a moderately bullish view reflecting confidence in the company’s contract book and technology development pipeline.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Potential

While the DCF suggests an intrinsic value below current market price, the gap can be rationalized by LEU’s unique positioning in the nuclear fuel market and strategic contracts with the Department of Energy. The global push for carbon-free energy sources gives the company a secular growth opportunity as advanced reactors and HALEU fuel demand expand over the next decade.

Long-term investment appeal depends on execution risks related to contract delivery and nuclear regulatory environments. The strong balance sheet and ongoing government contracts mitigate downside risks, while rising geopolitical interest in energy security supports sustained demand.

Overall Evaluation

LEU’s technical indicators and positive earnings surprise point to near-term upside potential, particularly if resistance near $215.83 is surpassed. The fundamental backdrop provides solid medium-to-long-term growth drivers, though the premium valuation above intrinsic value and analyst consensus price targets introduces caution.

Centrus Energy Corp. is best classified as a Hold candidate at present, balancing upside opportunities from contract momentum and advanced fuel technology against valuation stretch and potential volatility in energy markets. Investors focused on nuclear sector growth could monitor for stronger entry points closer to support levels or on clearer technical breakouts.