Nebius Group: Promising Growth with Technical Support Amid Market Volatility and Profit-Taking

Technical Analysis

NBIS closed at $36.02 on June 2, 2025, down 1.99% after hitting an intraday high of $36.04 and a low of $34.72. The stock remains comfortably above its 50-day ($27.70) and 200-day ($28.77) moving averages, signaling a sustained upward trend. The relative strength index (RSI) is at 60, reflecting moderate bullish momentum without being overbought. The MACD remains positive at 6.13, confirming continued bullish momentum, although the recent slight pullback indicates short-term profit-taking. Average true range (ATR) at 7.08 points suggests heightened volatility. Key resistance is at $37.32 and support at $29.61, with a stop-loss technically placed near $34.29 to manage downside risk.

For June 3, 2025, technical momentum may continue near-term consolidation around the $35-$37 range due to profit-taking post recent rallies, but support above $34.70 should hold, preventing steep declines. Over the coming week, the stock is likely to test resistance near $37.32, with a base forming above the 50-day MA providing a platform for further appreciation, contingent on overall market conditions and company-specific catalysts.

Fundamental Analysis

Nebius Group N.V. operates as a leading AI infrastructure provider, demonstrating robust growth with Q1 2025 revenue surged 385% and annual recurring revenue (ARR) reaching $310 million by April 2025—up nearly 700% year-over-year. The firm targets $750 million to $1 billion ARR by year-end, with expected positive EBITDA by 2025 close.

The company has recently secured a $1 billion private placement through senior unsecured convertible notes with low coupons (2.00% and 3.00%), emphasizing a debt strategy to avoid shareholder dilution amidst aggressive capital expenditure plans totaling approximately $2 billion for FY 2025. This approach preserves equity and underlines management’s focus on long-term value creation.

However, trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share sits at a negative -$1.65 and a corresponding negative P/E ratio (-22.86), indicating current unprofitability as heavy investment continues. The discounted cash flow (DCF) value extremely low at approximately 13 cents per share suggests the market is pricing in high growth expectations and significant risk, highlighting the early-stage nature and capital intensity of the business.

Consensus analyst targets range from $45 to $47 with a median of $46, implying roughly 27-30% upside from the current price. The limited analyst coverage (3 buys, no holds, sells, or strong buy/sell ratings) reflects bullish sentiment but cautious optimism given capital spending and revenue model nascent stage.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Potential

Current intrinsic valuation metrics appear subdued due to negative earnings and expansive capex. Given the company’s dominant position in AI infrastructure and access to capital markets via convertible debt, Nebius benefits from a runway to monetize its rapidly scaling operations. The strategic non-core asset monetizations, such as investment in ClickHouse, further diversify value drivers.

Long-term intrinsic value hinges on achieving scale efficiency and software monetization beyond GPU contract revenues, which currently dominate. If ARR growth and margin improvements continue in line with management guidance, Nebius could justify higher valuations as positive EBITDA and cash flow materialize, converting growth into profitability and shareholder value.

However, risk remains from capital intensity, market competition, and execution uncertainties in a rapidly evolving AI sector.

Performance Predictions

- Next trading day (June 3, 2025): Expect slight consolidation or a mild bounce, with price action between $34.50 and $37.00, supported by technical indicators and recent positive news flow.

- Upcoming week: Likely range-bound trading with a bias toward upward testing of $37.32 resistance. A successful breakout could lead to a push toward mid-$40s levels in alignment with analyst targets, subject to broader market stability and absence of negative sector shocks.

Overall Evaluation

Nebius Group qualifies as a Buy candidate for investors with growth-oriented, high-risk tolerance profiles focused on emerging technologies. The current price reflects significant scaling potential embedded with operational and execution risks. Its strong top-line momentum, clear path to EBITDA profitability, and strategic capital structure support medium- to long-term value appreciation despite short-term volatility and negative earnings.

Given solid technical support levels above $27 and near-term catalysts coupled with favorable debt financing mitigating dilution, the stock warrants accumulation for those seeking exposure to AI infrastructure revolution with a multi-year investment horizon.