Nebius Group Shows Bullish Momentum Amid AI Growth, Faces Short-Term Caution and Earnings Risks

Technical Analysis

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) closed at $51.02 on June 24, 2025, up 7.46% on strong volume exceeding the 30-day average, signaling bullish momentum. The intraday range of $48.98 to $52.90 tested resistance near $52.51 but did not decisively break above it, suggesting near-term consolidation. The 14-day RSI at 72 indicates overbought conditions, typically signaling a short-term pullback or sideways movement. However, the MACD remains positive at 5.19, confirming underlying upward momentum. The stock trades well above its 50-day ($35.03) and 200-day ($30.47) moving averages, evidencing a robust medium- and long-term uptrend. The ATR of approximately $6.83 signals elevated volatility, so cautious position sizing is warranted. Immediate support is seen near $48.28, close to the psychological stop-loss at $48.90.

For the next trading day (June 25), the price may consolidate between $48.90 and $52.50, with potential for a mild retracement due to RSI overextension. Over the coming week, if the stock sustains above $50 and volume remains supportive, a retest of the $55.04 yearly high is plausible. A confirmed break above $52.51 resistance would pave the way for further gains.

Fundamental Analysis

Nebius operates in the fast-growing AI infrastructure market, supported by an expanding portfolio of proprietary supercomputing technologies. The company’s strategic positioning and competitive pricing suggest revenue acceleration in the medium term. Market consensus reflects optimism with a $51 target and a unanimous buy rating from coverage analysts. The discounted cash flow (DCF) model result of 0.11 per share, however, is drastically below current market levels, indicating that traditional valuation metrics may not fully capture growth expectations or intangible assets tied to Nebius’s AI niche.

Profitability remains a concern, with a trailing twelve-month EPS of -$1.65 and a negative P/E ratio of -29.41, highlighting ongoing investment and development costs supplanting current earnings. Upcoming earnings on July 28, 2025, will be critical to assess operational leverage and margin trends.

The company’s market cap of $11.55 billion and strong liquidity position mitigate downside risks despite elevated volatility. The positive fundamental outlook is bolstered by recent sector-wide enthusiasm for AI infrastructure stocks and NBIS’s well-regarded technology stack.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Potential

Current traditional valuation metrics (negative EPS, low DCF) suggest the stock is priced for substantial growth rather than near-term earnings. Nebius’s long-term intrinsic value is likely linked to market dominance in AI infrastructure and execution on scaling revenue streams from proprietary technology. This scenario would justify the premium valuation if Nebius successfully leverages its infrastructure to capture sizable market share in the AI cloud services sector.

Given the cyclical and capital-intensive nature of the industry, sustained capital allocation efficiency and margin improvement post-earnings will be determining factors. The stock’s trajectory is sensitive to execution risk but has significant runway in an industry projected for exponential expansion.

Overall Evaluation

Nebius Group exhibits strong technical momentum supported by positive sector fundamentals and unanimous buy consensus from analysts. Elevated RSI and volatility suggest short-term caution, but technical indicators propose further upside conditional on breaking resistance levels. The negative earnings present a risk factor; however, Nebius’s positioning in a high-growth market underpins long-term value potential.

Classified as a Buy candidate for investors with a growth-oriented risk tolerance, the stock offers substantial upside linked to the AI infrastructure thesis, balanced against near-term volatility and execution uncertainties. The stock is less suited for purely value-focused or risk-averse profiles until earnings turn positive and valuation aligns more closely with fundamentals.