Newmont Hits Year High After 85% YTD Rally; Strong Fundamentals, Short-Term Overbought Risk

Summary

Newmont Corporation (NEM) closed at $74.40 on 08/29/2025, up 1.96%. Market cap is $81.72 billion. The stock is at a year high ($74.52) after an 85% YTD rally. Momentum indicators are strong but show overbought conditions. Recent fundamental releases and a credit upgrade support earnings quality and balance-sheet resilience.

Technical Snapshot

- Last close: $74.40 (08/29/2025)

- Year high / low: $74.52 / $36.86

- Volume: 7.94 million vs. Avg Vol: 11.21 million

- RSI (14): 77 (overbought)

- 50‑Day MA: $63.87; 200‑Day MA: $50.76 (clear bullish trend)

- MACD (3‑month): 3.00 (positive momentum)

- ATR: $2.21 (one‑day typical range)

- Support: $65.75; Stop‑loss level (technical discipline): $70.63

- Resistance: recent all‑time/high zone near $74.50–$75.00

Technical view: the trend is bullish with strong upside momentum and higher moving averages, but short‑term risk of a pullback is elevated by the RSI and the stock trading at the top of its range.

Fundamental Snapshot

- EPS (TTM): $5.52; P/E (TTM): 13.48

- Dividend yield (TTM): 1.34% (based on trailing twelve months)

- Recent drivers: record Q2 free cash flow ($1.70 billion), 25% earnings beat, ongoing portfolio optimization, Moody's upgrade to A3. Sector tailwinds include strong central bank gold demand and supportive macro uncertainty.

- Analyst consensus: 22 Buy, 12 Hold → consensus: Buy. Price targets: median $69.00, consensus $68.75, range $63.00–$74.00.

Fundamental view: cash generation and credit profile have materially improved. Valuation at P/E 13.48 is reasonable for a quality gold major, with upside tied to gold prices and margin sustainability.

Intrinsic Value & Long‑Term Potential

Using a simple earnings multiple approach for intrinsic value: applying a reasonable range of fair P/E multiples (12.00–15.00) to TTM EPS ($5.52) implies an intrinsic range of $66.24–$82.80, midpoint ~$74.52. That range aligns closely with current market pricing, indicating the stock is near fair value today. Long‑term potential is driven by:

- Secular support for gold (central bank buying, macro uncertainty) and Newmont’s Tier‑1 asset base.

- Improved margins, higher free cash flow and better credit metrics (A3 upgrade) that enable capital returns and project optionality.

Key long‑term risks: gold price volatility, reserve execution risk, geopolitical/operational disruptions and capital allocation choices.

Short‑Term Outlook — Next Trading Day (09/02/2025)

Probability-weighted expectation: modest continuation or consolidation.

- Expected intraday range (one‑day ATR used): $72.20–$76.60.

- Likely outcome: small net gain to flat (0.5%–2.0% upside) if momentum and weekend sentiment remain positive; otherwise a pullback toward $72.00–$71.00 if profit‑taking emerges given RSI overbought.

Catalysts: goodwill from Moody’s upgrade and recent cash‑flow headlines should underpin demand; absence of resistance leaves room for a breakout, but overbought readings increase pullback risk.

Near‑Term Outlook — Upcoming Week

- Base case: consolidation in a $70.00–$76.00 band as momentum digests the YTD run.

- Bull case: sustained flows into defensive/commodity sectors push NEM to test $78.00+.

- Bear case: profit taking and mean reversion lead to a re-test of support at $65.75.

Probability: 60% consolidation/slight appreciation, 25% further upside to new highs, 15% meaningful pullback to support levels.

Risk Management & Trading Levels

- Tactical stop‑loss reference: $70.63 (technical discipline).

- Key support to monitor: $65.75 (stronger structural support).

- Watch volume: a breakout above $75.00 on above‑average volume would validate further upside; failure on volume suggests short‑term reversal.

Overall Evaluation

Buy. Rationale: Newmont combines improving fundamentals (record free cash flow, earnings beats), a stronger credit profile (A3 upgrade) and sector tailwinds, while trading at a reasonable P/E relative to earnings. The intrinsic valuation range centers near current levels, implying limited downside relative to operational/commodity risk and clear upside if gold prices remain firm or operational gains continue. Short‑term technical overbought conditions warrant disciplined risk management (stop at ~$70.63) and tolerance for volatility.

Key Dates & Other Notes

- Next trading day: 09/02/2025

- Next dividend payable: 09/29/2025

- Next earnings: 10/22/2025

Caveats: near‑term price action will be sensitive to gold price moves and headline risk; the technical posture favors trend-following but requires stop discipline given RSI extremes.