ONEOK a Buy: DCF $222 vs $76; short-term consolidation, long-term upside

Technical Snapshot

OKE closed at $76.38 on 08/29/2025, up $0.49 (0.65%). Momentum: RSI(14) 67 (near overbought region), MACD (3-mo) -3.03 (negative). Price sits below the 50‑day MA ($78.71) and well below the 200‑day MA ($91.19), signaling the intermediate-to-long-term downtrend remains intact. Intraday range: low $75.64 — high $76.43; ATR $1.98 implies a typical one-day move ≈ $1.98. Liquidity on the session was light: volume 1.82M vs average 3.70M. Key technical levels: support $75.70, resistance $80.52, stop-loss level indicated at $73.21. Year range: $72.18 — $118.07.

Fundamental Snapshot

Market cap $48.10 billion. EPS (TTM) $5.13; P/E 14.89—valuation appears modest relative to broader market. DCF-derived intrinsic figure: $222.75 per share (provided). Analyst targets: consensus $91.75, median $87.50, high $110.00, low $82.00. Street sentiment: 21 Buys, 17 Holds, 0 Sells — consensus = Buy. Next earnings: 11/04/2025. Recent coverage repeatedly highlights ONEOK among dividend-oriented value names and as a stable midstream operator.

Next Trading Day (09/02/2025) — Probabilities & Range

Given current technicals and ATR, the most probable one-day price range is $74.40 — $78.36 (last close ± ATR). Near-term skew: mildly bullish-to-neutral — RSI near 67 supports continued upside pressure but resistance at $80.52 and negative MACD limit momentum. Lower-volume backdrop raises probability of muted moves or range-bound action unless a news catalyst appears.

Upcoming Week — Outlook

The stock is likely to consolidate between immediate support ($75.70) and the lower resistance band (~$80.50). Catalysts that could push price above the 50‑day MA ($78.71) include dividend-related buy interest or sector tailwinds; absent catalysts, the dominant pattern favors continued mean reversion lower toward the year low area (mid-$70s). Analyst targets cluster in the $87.50–$91.75 range, suggesting upside over multiple weeks to months rather than immediate breakout this week.

Intrinsic Value & Long-Term Investment Potential

The provided DCF ($222.75) implies a very large margin of safety versus the current price ($76.38), indicating material upside on a cash‑flow basis. Fundamentals (stable midstream cash flows, solid EPS, modest P/E) and a favorable analyst consensus support multi-year total-return potential, particularly for income investors if divisional flows and distributions hold. Caveats: midstream valuations are sensitive to commodity flows, capital allocation, distribution policy, leverage and interest-rate environments; DCF outcomes hinge on growth and discount-rate assumptions. Without balance-sheet and distribution coverage data in this packet, the DCF should be viewed as optimistic guidance rather than a certainty.

Risks

- Sector risk: lower hydrocarbon volumes or prolonged commodity weakness can compress cash flows.

- Rate environment: higher rates increase discounting of cash flows and pressure on income-focused names.

- Technical risk: trading below both moving averages increases the chance of continued downside or extended consolidation.

- Liquidity/volatility risk around earnings (11/04/2025) and macro headlines.

Overall Evaluation

Buy candidate.

Rationale: The stock exhibits value characteristics—reasonable P/E (14.89), positive EPS ($5.13), and a DCF materially above market price—paired with a buy-leaning analyst consensus (21 Buys vs 17 Holds). These fundamentals and the company’s midstream cash-flow profile support long-term upside and income appeal. Near-term technicals (below 50/200 MA, negative MACD) and proximity to the year low warrant caution for timing and capital allocation; traders should account for volatility and use the support ($75.70) and the indicated stop-loss ($73.21) levels if managing downside risk.