Rigetti Computing Faces Technical Headwinds Amid High Growth Potential and Analyst Skepticism

Technical Analysis

Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) closed at $11.06 on June 20, 2025, down 2.56% from the previous session. The stock trades just above its 50-day moving average of $10.77 and well above its 200-day moving average at $7.53, indicating an intermediate uptrend supported by longer-term momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42 signals neither oversold nor overbought conditions but suggests mild bearish bias after recent declines. The MACD remains positive at 0.08, pointing to underlying bullish momentum, albeit weakening slightly. Average True Range (ATR) near $9.59 signals sustained volatility consistent with the company’s emerging technology profile. Key near-term technical levels position support at $10.63 and resistance at $11.64; the stock is currently testing resistance after slipping from a local peak of $11.58 during the session. Volume at 26.54 million underperforms the average volume of 48.18 million, highlighting a lack of strong conviction behind the recent price move.

For the next trading day (June 23, 2025), the technical picture suggests potential consolidation or a minor pullback given the recent dip and RSI below 50, unless fresh catalysts drive a breakout above resistance. Over the upcoming week, if Rigetti can maintain prices above the 50-day moving average and break the $11.64 resistance decisively with increased volume, it may signal a renewed bullish phase. Failure to hold above $10.63 support could lead to deeper retracement toward the 200-day average.

Fundamental Analysis

Rigetti operates in the nascent quantum computing industry, recognized for high growth potential but significant execution risks. The trailing twelve-month EPS of -$0.80 and a negative P/E (-13.82) reflect ongoing losses typical for a developmental-stage tech firm. The Discounted Cash Flow model yields a negative intrinsic value (-$2.39), which aligns with its current inability to generate positive free cash flows and reflects anticipated future cash outflows in expanding R&D and commercial infrastructure.

Market capitalization stands at approximately $3.23 billion, reflecting considerable investor interest despite volatility; however, the consensus price targets are markedly lower, ranging between $2.00 and $4.00, with a median target of $3.00, indicating analyst skepticism toward near-term valuation and profitability. The stock’s price is significantly above these targets, suggesting a potentially overextended valuation based on fundamentals at this stage.

Rigetti’s strategic focus on QPU-as-a-Service and cloud-based quantum access positions it well for commercial traction as the quantum computing market matures. Nonetheless, competitors such as IonQ and D-Wave have shown stronger revenue growth and technology progress, contributing to cautious sentiment among investors.

The upcoming earnings announcement on August 14, 2025, may serve as a critical catalyst, potentially impacting sentiment depending on progress toward commercialization milestones and financial performance.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Investment Potential

Current intrinsic valuation metrics, notably the negative DCF and lack of profitability, underscore significant risks for conventional value investors. However, Rigetti’s leadership in quantum computing offers asymmetric long-term growth potential if it successfully capitalizes on emerging market opportunities and establishes scalable commercial revenue streams. The technology’s transformative capacity could drive exponential growth in the next several years, but this remains largely speculative and dependent on disruptive breakthroughs and market adoption.

For long-term investment horizons, Rigetti could represent a high-risk, high-reward play contingent on technological execution and industry dynamics. Patience and tolerance for near-term volatility are prerequisites given the path to profitability remains undefined.

Overall Evaluation

Rigetti Computing is positioned at a technological frontier with a market capitalization reflecting optimism beyond current fundamentals. The technical setup indicates short-term consolidation with potential bullish breakouts if resistance levels are breached, but recent volatility and volume suggest investor uncertainty. Fundamental indicators highlight persistent losses and a disconnect between market price and intrinsic valuations. Analyst consensus leans toward a buy, but price targets imply significant downside from current levels.

Given the mixture of strong speculative potential against material execution and valuation risks, the stock fits a Hold classification. The balance of near-term technical caution and long-term strategic promise suggests monitoring key support levels and upcoming earnings as pivotal determinants for future reevaluation.