Rigetti Computing Shows Bullish Technicals Amidst Fundamental Challenges; Caution Advised Ahead of Earnings

Technical Analysis

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) closed at $11.28 on June 6, 2025, up 3.58% from prior close. The intraday range remains relatively tight between $10.98 and $11.75, hovering just above near-term support at $11.22 and beneath resistance at $11.64. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47 signals a neutral momentum, reflecting a balanced market sentiment without overbought or oversold extremes. The 50-day moving average ($10.13) and 200-day moving average ($7.05) both trade significantly below price, indicating an uptrend on multiple timeframes. The MACD of 1.38 corroborates bullish momentum persisting over the last quarter. Average volume of 49.7 million contrasts with the recent volume run at 38 million, suggesting slightly subdued trading interest but still robust activity. The Average True Range (ATR) surprisingly high at around 10.30 appears inconsistent with price volatility and likely reflects calculation artifacts or historical spikes; recent volatility is moderate.

For the next trading day (June 9), technical signals favor modest upward movement or consolidation near resistance at $11.64. Barring a surge in volume or news catalysts, breakthrough beyond resistance might be limited short term, with support near $11.22 providing a floor. Over the coming week, the trend remains cautiously bullish given constructive moving averages and technical momentum, with possible testing of $12.00 if volume accelerates.

Fundamental Analysis

Rigetti Computing remains in a developmental stage, reflected in trailing twelve months (TTM) EPS of -$0.80 and a negative P/E ratio of -14.10. Losses reflect ongoing investment in R&D and commercialization typical for a quantum computing pure-play at this growth phase. The discounted cash flow (DCF) model posts a negative intrinsic value estimate (~ -$2.34), indicating that current free cash flow projections do not support a positive valuation at this stage. The company's market capitalization stands at approximately $3.30 billion, reflecting market optimism about quantum computing’s long-term potential despite present unprofitability.

Recent strategic developments include a $35 million partnership with Quanta aimed at scaling quantum computing hardware for practical deployment. This signals progress toward commercial viability and potential future revenue growth. Market enthusiasm is evidenced by RGTI's remarkable 1,080% rally over the last 12 months, reflecting broader excitement in quantum technologies.

Analyst consensus aggregates to a "Buy" stance, with three buys and one hold, but target prices cluster low between $2.00 and $4.00—well below current market price—suggesting cautious valuation within fundamentals. Upcoming earnings on August 14, 2025, will be pivotal, likely emphasizing progress in commercialization and guiding on cash burn and capital structure.

Intrinsic value remains suppressed due to negative earnings and early cash flow outlooks, making RGTI a speculative growth equity rather than an intrinsic-value-driven investment at present. Long-term potential is contingent on technological breakthroughs, scaling quantum hardware, and market adoption, placing it within a high-risk, high-reward category.

Overall Evaluation

Rigetti exhibits strong technical momentum and sector-level enthusiasm, supported by strategic partnerships fueling growth prospects. The stock trades well above both key moving averages and has built solid support near $11.22, indicating a constructive technical setup near-term. However, fundamental metrics reveal persistent losses and a negative intrinsic valuation model, typical for frontier technology firms developing nascent products.

Over the next day and week, moderate gains or consolidation are expected, assuming steady market conditions and no adverse news. From a long-term perspective, RGTI offers exposure to quantum computing innovation but carries significant execution and valuation risk until profitable operations are demonstrated.

Categorized as a "Hold" candidate, the stock suits investors comfortable with speculative technology plays who seek exposure to quantum computing upside while recognizing near-term financial and operational uncertainties. The gap between market price and fundamental valuation advises caution, with focus on upcoming earnings and deal execution to validate growth assumptions.