Rigetti Computing Stock Analysis: Strong Momentum Amid Earnings Caution and Market Optimism

Technical Analysis

Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) closed at $10.58 on May 9, 2025, up 2.62% from the previous day, with intraday volatility between $10.04 and $10.64. The stock trades well above its 50-day ($8.90) and 200-day ($5.89) moving averages, indicating a strong upward momentum over both intermediate and long-term time frames. The 14-day RSI at 69 is approaching overbought territory, suggesting potential near-term profit-taking or consolidation. The MACD remains positive (0.35), reinforcing current bullish momentum. Key technical support lies at $9.35, while resistance is at $11.03. Volume is above average, reflecting increased investor interest and confirming the recent uptrend’s strength.

For May 12, 2025, minimal pullback below $10.23 stop-loss could be expected, but the overall trend favors modest gains towards testing resistance at $11.03. Over the upcoming week, the stock is likely to trade in the $10–$11 range, with potential upside if it breaks the immediate resistance amid positive sentiment from the quantum computing sector.

Fundamental Analysis

Rigetti Computing remains a speculative growth play in the emerging quantum computing industry. The trailing twelve months (TTM) EPS is negative at -$1.09, and the price-to-earnings ratio is correspondingly negative at -9.71, underscoring ongoing unprofitability typical for early-stage technology firms investing heavily in R&D. The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation also remains negative (-$2.52), suggesting the company is yet to generate positive free cash flow and intrinsic value from an earnings perspective.

Nevertheless, recent sector tailwinds are evident. The company’s stock has outperformed many peers following positive news related to technological advancements and expanded partnerships. Despite a high valuation multiple, this reflects investor confidence in Rigetti’s disruptive potential in quantum computing hardware and software.

Analyst consensus ratings tilt toward Buy with 3 buys and 1 hold, and target prices remain modestly lower at a median of $3—indicating cautious optimism but highlighting significant uncertainty and elevated risk.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Investment Potential

The negative DCF and earnings metrics denote that intrinsic value is currently below the market price by traditional valuation measures, suggesting that the stock is priced more on future potential than present fundamentals. Long-term investment appeal hinges on Rigetti’s ability to commercialize quantum computing technologies and capitalize on global industry expansion. Given the nascent stage of quantum computing, investment risks remain high, including technological challenges and capital intensity. However, if Rigetti delivers on roadmap milestones and expands revenue streams, substantial revaluation upside is plausible over multiple years.

Overall Evaluation

RGTI sits as a high-beta growth stock characterized by strong technical momentum but fundamental valuation weaknesses and near-term event risk ahead of earnings in August. Technical indicators favor holding current positions with a tight stop-loss near $10.23 to manage downside risk. The general market enthusiasm for quantum computing offers a bullish backdrop, but fundamental volatility and unanswered profitability questions temper immediate conviction.

Classifying the stock, RGTI presents as a Hold candidate for investors prioritizing technical trends and sector growth prospects, but with caution due to unproven earnings sustainability and intrinsic value deficits. The stock is not yet attractive as a definitive Buy purely on valuation grounds, nor does it warrant a Sell given bullish momentum and industry outlook.