Rigetti Computing Stock Rises 3.5% on High Volume Amid Strong Momentum and Analyst Optimism

Technical Analysis

Rigetti Computing Inc. (RGTI) closed at $17.14 on July 17, 2025, up 3.50% on volume of 81.44 million shares, significantly exceeding its average daily volume of 48.76 million, confirming elevated trader interest. The stock traded in a narrow intraday range near its close, between $15.73 and $17.17, approaching a recent year high of $21.42. The 14-day RSI is elevated at 78, approaching overbought territory, which may indicate short-term profit-taking pressure. Price sits well above the 50-day ($11.78) and 200-day ($8.39) moving averages, signaling strong upward momentum and a sustained bullish trend. The MACD at 0.50 supports this positive momentum. ATR at 6.87 reflects elevated volatility. Support levels hold at $16.56 and stop-loss is positioned near $16.64. Notably, no defined resistance levels are evident, implying potential for further upside if momentum persists.

For the next trading day (July 18), given the strong volume surge, positive momentum, and lack of nearby resistance, the stock is likely to maintain gains or advance modestly, though RSI readings warrant caution for a possible short-term pullback. Over the upcoming week, expect continued volatility with the possibility of consolidations around current highs, particularly as investors anticipate the August 14 earnings announcement.

Fundamental Analysis

Rigetti’s market capitalization stands at approximately $5.01 billion. The trailing twelve-month EPS remains negative at -$0.80, reflecting ongoing unprofitability common in early-stage quantum technology firms. The P/E ratio is negative (-21.42), indicating a lack of current earnings to support traditional valuation metrics. The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation is negative at -2.39, suggesting the company is currently cash flow negative and intrinsic value is not supported by present cash flow projections. Nonetheless, milestone achievements—such as a recent breakthrough with 99.5% gate fidelity on its 36-qubit quantum system and halving error rates compared to its previous chips—underline significant technological progress.

Analyst consensus tilts bullish, with three buys and one hold, pegging a target price consensus at $18.00, marginally above the current trading price. This implies moderate upside potential near term. Market optimism is also supported by the CEO’s outlook that meaningful commercial traction lies approximately four years away, situating Rigetti as a long-term growth play hinged on quantum computing commercialization.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Investment Potential

The negative DCF and EPS reflect early-stage capital-intensive development with no immediate profitability, typical for firms pioneering disruptive technology. Long-term value depends heavily on successful commercialization and scalable quantum advantage, as well as expanding market adoption. Innovations in chiplet modular architectures and fidelity improvements signify scalable growth potential. Despite volatility and current cash burn, Rigetti’s positioning in a nascent quantum computing market could yield substantial intrinsic value appreciation if commercialization timelines hold. The path to a positive intrinsic valuation remains contingent on technological and market execution over the next several years.

Overall Evaluation

RGTI qualifies as a speculative Buy candidate at present valuation, driven by strong technical momentum, substantial volume increases, recent technological breakthroughs, and a bullish analyst consensus with modest near-term upside. Elevated RSI signals caution in the short term, possibly triggering a consolidation or pullback. However, the absence of resistance and strengthened moving averages present a favorable risk-reward profile for active traders and long-term growth investors focused on quantum computing innovation. Given negative fundamentals and uncertain profitability timelines, the stock does not yet suit risk-averse or value-oriented investors.

In summary, Rigetti Computing’s stock reflects a high-growth technology play with significant near-term price volatility but promising long-term potential contingent on commercialization success and market adoption of quantum computing solutions.