Rivian Automotive, Inc.: Evaluating Stock Performance and Recommendations for Investors

Introduction

Rivian Automotive, Inc., trading under the ticker RIVN on the Nasdaq exchange, is the focus of this stock analysis. The company's performance will be evaluated using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis to make informed predictions about the stock's future performance and recommendations for investors.

Technical Analysis

On August 25, 2023, RIVN closed at 20.07 USD, demonstrating a change of 0.43 (2.19%). The trading volume for the day was 16.87 million, significantly lower than the average trading volume of about 51.94 million shares. The company's market capitalization stands at approximately 18.87 billion USD.

RIVN's relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, is currently at 23, indicating the stock is in an oversold condition and could be due for a price rebound.

The fifty-day moving average, a key indicator employed by chartists to identify price trends, stands at 21.60, slightly above the last closing price, suggesting a bearish trend. Likewise, the 200-day moving average is at 19.24, slightly lower than the current price, which offers a bullish outlook.

Rivian Automotive's MACD, a trend-following momentum indicator, is currently at -1.9, indicating a bearish trend. The stock's average true range (ATR) is 6.87, demonstrating a high level of volatility. Resistance stands at 20.43 USD, which the stock could struggle to surpass, and support is at 19.56 USD.

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamentally, Rivian has a negative EPS of -6.53, and the P/E ratio is also negative (-3.07), indicating the company isn't profitable or has earnings attributable to common shareholders.

The discounted cash flow (DCF) value for RIVN sits at 32.74 USD, meaning the stock seems undervalued at its current price.

On a forward-looking basis, the company's price targets range from a low of 14 USD to a high of 147 USD, with a consensus target of 53.1 USD and a median target of 33 USD. Recommendation trends suggest a "Buy" consensus, with 11 analysts recommending "Buy," 3 suggesting "Hold," and 2 indicating "Sell."

Recent Developments

Recent news indicates that Rivian has drawn bullish attention from the California State Teachers' Retirement System, a major pension fund, which has increased its investments in EV stocks. Moreover, forecasts suggest Rivian is poised to significantly disrupt the new-energy vehicle market, presenting a potential growth opportunity for investors.

Stock Prediction and Recommendation

On the next trading day, August 28, 2023, incorporating the technical patterns and recent momentum, the stock price is expected to trade within the range of its support and resistance levels, i.e., between 19.56 USD and 20.43 USD. It's likely to experience a minor pullback due to its "oversold" condition, which could push the price towards the resistance level.

As for the upcoming week, given Rivian's volatility, the price could swing within a wide range, potentially challenging its 50-day moving average. Moreover, the market hype surrounding EV stocks, along with the company's promising prospects, could trigger a rational rebound towards its DCF value or potentially its median target price level.

Final Stock Evaluation

Based on this analysis, RIVN is categorized as a "Hold." This recommendation takes into account the company's current technical state, oversold but with bearish momentum, and the fundamental aspect where the company is not currently profitable but has significant market opportunities that could drive future profitability.

Investors should closely monitor the company's earnings announcement on November 7, 2023, as this will provide further information about the company's financial performance and potential profitability. As always, investors should consider their risk tolerance and investment time horizon before making any decisions.