Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Shows Potential for Long-Term Growth Despite Short-Term Volatility

Analysis of Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)

1. Overview and Market Performance

Rivian Automotive, Inc (RIVN), a company traded on NASDAQ, had its last close at $20.32 on August 23, 2023, indicating a change of 1.20% increase. The stock had an intraday range from a low of $19.61 and a high of $20.49. The volume of shares traded was approximately 17.05 million, below the average volume of 51.92 million shares.

RIVN recorded a year high and low at $40.86 and $11.68 respectively, hinting at its volatility in the market over the past fiscal year. Its market capitalization stands at $19.1 billion with 940.31 million outstanding shares.

2. Fundamental Analysis

With an Earnings per Share (EPS) of $-6.53, RIVN is currently unprofitable. The Price Earnings (P/E) ratio is recorded as -3.11, which might deter some investors compared to other profitable players in the market. The company's next earnings announcement is slated for November 7, 2023.

Based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) model, the intrinsic value of RIVN stands at $32.99. Should their strategies align with this, RIVN can show a promising upward trend.

The analyst consensus currently leans more towards 'Buy' with 11 'Buy', 3 'Hold', and 2 'Sell' recommendations. Target price estimates range from $32.5 to $147, with a consensus target of $52.85. These estimates reveal optimism about RIVN's potential price growth.

3. Technical Analysis

RIVN's Relative Strength Index (RSI14) value of 16 suggests that the stock is currently oversold. Usually, an RSI under 30 signals potential undervaluation, hence can trigger buying.

The Average True Range (ATR) at 7.25 indicates high volatility in the stock price. Furthermore, the company's Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) 3-month value at -1.37 also suggests a downward trend.

The company’s 50-day moving average at $21.39 is greater than the 200-day moving average of $19.36 and the current price which implies bearish sentiment.

The stock has seen some amount of support and resistance at $19.56 and $20.43 respectively. Breakouts from these levels could lead to significant price movements.

4. Recent News and Developments

Recently, various news outlets expressed some optimistic views about RIVN. Claims of the company's profitability strides and game-changing inflection points due to the nascent EV market, coupled with its proprietary software, hint at its transformative potential in the industry. Furthermore, it is deemed as a stock to super-charge a portfolio and amongst the oversold stocks to buy now on NASDAQ, indicating high prospects.

Stock Prediction and Final Evaluation

Considering the aforementioned data and recent developments, one can predict the stock's performance. For August 24, 2023, due to the oversold condition, there might be a short-term rebound, pushing the price closer to, or slightly above, the resistance level of $20.43.

For the upcoming week, the price might continue to witness more volatility. However, over the medium to long term, if the company uses its potential disruptive power in the EV market, adheres to its profitable strategies, and meets analysts' target prices, given the undervalued DCF, the stock could experience a substantial rally.

Despite the short term bearish indicators, combined technical and fundamental analysis indicates promise for the long-term. Considering all factors, RIVN is considered a 'Buy'. This is due to the discounted intrinsic valuation, analyst estimates, and recent positive news. However, considering the high volatility and current unprofitability indicated by the negative EPS, potential investors should be cautious, considering their risk tolerance and financial status before investing.