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Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Faces Bearish Trends, but Short-term Rebound Possible

StockInvest.us, 1 month ago

Rivian Automotive Technical Analysis of Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)

Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s stock price has been under pressure, closing at $16.76 on January 17, 2024, after a 5.95% decline, with a trading volume of 44.47 million shares - higher than its average volume of 35.49 million shares. The stock has been fluctuating between $16.28 and $17.16, trending toward the lower end of its 52-week range, which spans from $11.68 to $28.06.

The technical indicators suggest bearish sentiment:

- The Relative Strength Index (RSI14) is extremely low at 8, indicating that the stock is in the oversold territory and could be due for a reversal or bounce-back if market sentiment improves.

- The 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) of $19.02 is above the 200 Day Moving Average (DMA) of $18.72, typically considered a bearish crossover. However, the current stock price is below both moving averages, further suggesting a bearish trend. - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a slight bullish signal with a value of 0.34, but considering the other factors, it might not be enough to indicate an immediate trend reversal. - The stock has broken through its support at $15.72 and is nearing its resistance level at $17.00. If it breaks the resistance, it could signal a potential reversal.

- The Average True Range (ATR) stands at $6.49, indicative of high volatility levels.

Fundamental Analysis of Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN)

Rivian Automotive Rivian Automotive is a young company in the rapidly-growing electric vehicle (EV) market. The company's current market capitalization stands at $15.89 billion, and it has a significant number of outstanding shares, about 948 million.

The fundamental metrics cast a bearish outlook:

- The company has been registering negative earnings per share at -$6.02, which, along with a Price to Earnings (PE) ratio of -2.78 signals that the company is not yet profitable and is likely priced based on growth expectations and potential future profitability. - Recently published news indicates that analysts expect Rivian to achieve positive gross margins by Q4 2024. This forward-looking statement could signal long-term growth potential; however, profitability remains a question in the near term. - Analyst sentiment has shifted recently, with a downgrade and a price target cut from Deutsche Bank, reflecting concerns or lowered expectations about the company's short-term performance. - The earnings announcement date is set for February 21, 2024, which will be a significant date for investors to either reinforce or reevaluate their positions based on the company’s performance.

Predictions for Upcoming Trading Days

Given the oversold RSI levels, Rivian's stock may experience a brief rebound in the next trading day or week, as traders could capitalize on what they perceive to be undervalued share prices due to recent declines. However, the persistently negative sentiment indicated by the recent news and fundamental data may keep a lid on any potential rally. High volatility is expected to persist.

Overall Evaluation

The overall recommendation for Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is classified as a 'Hold'. The steep decline in price coupled with negative earnings still puts the company in a precarious position. Yet, the anticipated improvement in gross margins by the end of 2024 and the deeply oversold RSI may warrant some optimism for a short-term rebound. Investors should look for stabilization in the price and confirmation of positive fundamental changes before considering a long position.

The high targets set by analysts indicate long-term confidence in Rivian, but these targets are coupled with a broad range of outcomes and a strong dependency on the company's ability to execute its growth plans and improve its financials. Given this, a 'Hold' rating is appropriate, suggesting that investors maintain their current positions while closely monitoring the company's progress and upcoming earnings report for potential re-assessment.

Check full Rivian Automotive forecast and analysis here.