SoFi Technologies Faces Short-Term Volatility Amid Strong Growth and Crypto Investment Plans

Technical Analysis

SoFi Technologies (SOFI) closed slightly down at $13.18 on May 9, 2025, with a minor decline of 0.60%. The stock traded within an intraday range of $12.88 to $13.47, staying above its 50-day ($12.12) and 200-day ($11.83) moving averages, signaling a prevailing bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 78 indicates an overbought condition, suggesting potential short-term profit-taking or consolidation. The MACD remains positive at 0.68, supporting upward momentum, although the high ATR (~5.79) reflects notable price volatility. Immediate support is established at $12.51, with resistance near $13.20—recent price action above this level will be critical for near-term upside. Volume of 52.5 million is slightly below the average of 55.8 million, indicating moderate trading activity.

For the next trading day (May 12, 2025), the stock appears poised for a mild retracement or consolidation due to RSI-induced overbought conditions, likely testing support near $12.83 (stop-loss level) before attempting further gains. Over the upcoming week, if the price breaches resistance at $13.20 decisively with volume pickup, it could target the low $14 range, in line with analyst price targets, as momentum indicators remain constructive.

Fundamental Analysis

SoFi’s trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43 and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.65 reflect growth expectations priced into the stock. The company’s Q1 2025 results showed strong revenue growth (32.8% YoY) and a substantial member base increase (34.24% YoY), underpinning its expanding financial services footprint. However, the technology segment lags expectations, detracting from a pure fintech valuation, and the market currently treats SoFi more as a financial institution than a growth tech stock.

Key upcoming catalysts include the company’s major investment into the crypto and blockchain sectors, as disclosed by CEO Anthony Noto. This strategic pivot may drive future top-line growth and reposition SoFi within the evolving fintech landscape, although it introduces execution risk and potential volatility. The next earnings announcement on July 29, 2025, will be pivotal to assess progress on these initiatives.

Intrinsic value considerations hinge on SoFi’s growth trajectory versus risk factors. The current market cap of approximately $14.57 billion and a P/E near 31 suggests a moderate premium, justified by strong growth but offset by execution uncertainty in new business verticals. The consensus price target median of $13.50 to $14 aligns closely with current trading levels, implying limited near-term upside unless growth acceleration materializes.

Long-Term Investment Potential

Long-term prospects depend on SoFi’s ability to scale its crypto/blockchain ambitions while maintaining its core lending and financial services growth. The firm’s diversified revenue streams and expanding user base are positives, yet the technology platform’s underperformance tempers enthusiasm. Structural fintech growth drivers and digital transformation trends offer tailwinds, but competitive pressures and market volatility remain significant.

If SoFi can evolve its technology stack and establish meaningful crypto revenue, valuation multiples could expand, improving intrinsic value. Otherwise, the stock may remain range-bound or constrained by valuation floors reflective of its banking-like revenue profile.

Overall Evaluation

Categorized as a Hold candidate. The stock exhibits near-term technical strength but faces overbought pressure and volume below average, suggesting careful watching is warranted. Fundamental growth metrics are robust, yet uncertainties regarding technology execution and crypto investments limit conviction for immediate upside beyond the $14 target. The current valuation factors in growth well, and catalysts ahead provide conditional upside potential, balanced by execution risk. Investors focused on longer-term fintech exposure will find SoFi intriguing, but near-term price appreciation may be moderate absent breakthrough news or earnings surprises.