Sign InTrade Desk tumbles after earnings and CFO exit; oversold bounce likely amid decelerating growth
Summary
As of 08/13/2025, The Trade Desk is trading in distressed territory after a post-earnings sell-off and CFO exit—technicals (RSI 23, well below key MAs) point to a volatile short-covering bounce while fundamentals (decelerating growth, DCF near current price) mean meaningful upside depends on renewed top-line momentum.
Headline
The Trade Desk (TTD) is trading at distressed levels after a post-earnings sell-off and CFO departure; technicals show an oversold bounce setup while fundamentals show decelerating growth and a valuation that demands recovery in top-line momentum.
Technical snapshot
- Last close (08/13/2025): $54.36 (+2.05%). Volume: 16.02 million vs avg 12.26 million.
- Market cap: $24.98 billion. Year range: $42.96–$141.53.
- RSI(14): 23 (oversold). 50D MA: $75.17; 200D MA: $88.80 (price well below both).
- MACD (3-month): 3.08. ATR: $8.99 (high intraday volatility).
- Near-term technical support: $54.23. Resistance: $67.64.
Technical outlook — next trading day (08/14/2025)
- Expected price action: volatile, mean-reversion bounce likely off oversold conditions. Probable intraday range: $52.50–$59.00.
- Probabilities: ~60% chance of a short-covering rally toward $57–$59; ~40% chance of continuation lower if selling momentum resumes and support at $54.23 fails.
Technical outlook — upcoming week
- Two scenarios: (1) Stabilization and partial recovery toward $65–$68 if sentiment calms and buyers re-enter; (2) Continued weakness toward the year low (~$42.96) if institutional selling and uncertainty over CFO exit persist.
- Baseline: high volatility with a one-week trading range estimate of $45.00–$68.00. The stock will be driven by flow/sentiment more than fundamentals in the near term.
Fundamental snapshot
- EPS (TTM): $0.83; P/E: 61.55. Next earnings: 11/06/2025.
- Discounted cash flow fair value: $57.75 (DCF roughly in line with current price).
- Analyst consensus: Buy (28 Buy / 15 Hold / 1 Sell). Street targets: median $97.50; consensus $98.33; high $125; low $75.
- Recent news: large post-earnings sell-off (nearly 40%) driven by decelerating revenue growth and CFO departure. Subsequent coverage notes both near-term headwinds (Amazon ad competition, macro) and structural strengths (Connected TV leadership, AI platform Kokai).
Intrinsic value & long-term potential
- Intrinsic view: The DCF at $57.75 is close to the current price, implying limited margin of safety at current levels. If revenue growth re-accelerates toward historical rates and TTD retains share in CTV/AI-enabled bidding, upside to the street median is conceivable over multiple years.
- Growth drivers: CTV secular shift, AI-driven yield improvements, platform stickiness.
- Key risks: Intensifying competition (notably large cloud/retailer ad platforms), slowing revenue growth, execution risk after CFO exit, and a valuation that requires resumed top-line momentum to justify premium multiples.
- Long-term assessment: The company has durable secular assets but requires a clear re-acceleration in revenue and margin stability to convert optionality into a safe long-term investment.
Overall evaluation
Hold — Rationale: Price is near the analyst-derived DCF ($57.75) and materially below historical highs, but fundamentals show decelerating growth and elevated valuation metrics (P/E ~61.55) that leave little margin of safety. Technicals favor a short-term bounce given oversold readings (RSI 23), creating trading opportunities, while long-term upside depends on operational recovery and competitive dynamics. The stock is therefore more suitable for selective accumulation by investors with a high tolerance for volatility or for traders seeking mean-reversion, rather than for passive buy-and-hold at current levels.
