Webull rises on 46% Q2 revenue surge and U.S. crypto relaunch; DCF implies 22% upside

Summary

Webull Corporation (BULL) closed at $14.67 on 08/28/2025, up 1.59%. Market cap stands at $6.59 billion. Recent company news is positive: Q2 revenue rose 46% and U.S. crypto trading was relaunched, with commentary pointing to rising deposits, improving monetization and expanding margins. The DCF-derived intrinsic value is $17.90 per share versus the current price, and the stock trades at a TTM P/E of 10.97 with EPS of $1.24.

Technical Analysis

- Price sits above the 50-day MA ($14.01) and 200-day MA ($13.30), a constructive medium- to long-term technical posture.

- RSI(14) at 48 is neutral, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

- MACD (3-month) is slightly positive (0.05), signaling mild bullish momentum.

- Volume (18.27 million) exceeded the 30-day average (13.02 million), suggesting genuine buying interest on the latest uptick.

- Immediate support is $14.62 and resistance $15.41; the next clear upside target is the $15.40–15.50 area.

- ATR at 7.07 is abnormally large relative to price, reflecting heightened historical volatility; intraday swings should be expected.

Fundamental Analysis

- Q2 revenue growth of 46% marks a strong reacceleration in top-line performance; relaunch of crypto trading broadens product monetization channels.

- Profitability is present on a TTM basis (EPS $1.24), and margins reportedly expanded in the quarter.

- Valuation is reasonable for a growth fintech: P/E of 10.97 with strong recent revenue growth implies underappreciated earnings momentum.

- DCF at $17.90 implies roughly 22% upside from current levels, leaving a margin for execution risk while suggesting undervaluation versus discounted cash-flow assumptions.

Next Trading Day (08/29/2025) — Probabilistic Outlook

- Most likely (≈60%): modest continuation higher or consolidation, intraday range roughly $14.40–$15.40, with potential test of $15.41 resistance.

- Possible (≈30%): sideways trading around $14.60 with low net change as traders digest Q2 details and crypto relaunch specifics.

- Less likely (≈10%): pullback below support to test $14.00 if profit-taking accelerates or market breadth turns negative.

Expect a small positive bias given fresh positive news and above-average volume.

Upcoming Week Outlook

- Near term (1 week) probability-weighted view favors continued constructive momentum: 55% chance of testing $15.40 resistance and a 25% chance of extending toward $16.50 on sustained follow-through and favorable market sentiment.

- A consolidation scenario between $14.00 and $15.50 is plausible if headlines fail to spur additional buying.

- Volatility risk remains elevated; a reversal back toward the 50-day MA ($14.01) or 200-day MA ($13.30) would be the main downside path if broader market sentiment weakens.

Intrinsic Value & Long-Term Potential

- DCF ($17.90) exceeds the current price, indicating intrinsic upside under the model’s assumptions. Given profitability, improving unit economics, and re-entry into crypto trading, the company shows a credible path toward higher cash-flow generation.

- Long-term potential depends on sustained user growth, retention of deposits, regulatory stability around crypto, and competition dynamics versus incumbents. If revenue growth and margin expansion continue, the stock can reasonably move toward or exceed the DCF level over a 6–18 month horizon. Execution and regulatory risks temper upside, so valuation sensitivity is meaningful.

Risks

- Competitive pressure from larger fintech platforms and pricing/feature competition.

- Crypto-related regulatory and volatility risks tied to the newly relaunched trading capability.

- Historical price volatility (large ATR) and a prior 52-week high at $79.56 underline susceptibility to big swings.

- Dependence on continued user monetization and deposit growth to sustain margin expansion.

Overall Evaluation

Buy — The combination of robust Q2 revenue growth, renewed product monetization (crypto trading), positive profitability, a DCF above the market price and reasonable P/E supports a Buy classification. The view is contingent on continued execution and manageable regulatory developments; the stock carries elevated short-term volatility and should be approached with position sizing appropriate to that risk.