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The XAU/USD currency pair price gained 1.44% on the last trading day (Thursday, 17th Apr 2025), rising from $3,280.91 to $3,328.15. It has now gained 7 days in a row. It is not often that currency pair manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. During the last trading day the currency pair fluctuated 2.25% from a day low at $3,283.91 to a day high of $3,357.88. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 7% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -117 thousand shares and in total, 0 shares were bought and sold for approximately $0 . You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The currency pair has broken the strong rising the short-term trend up and an even stronger rate of rising is indicated. For any reaction back there will now be support on the roof on the current trend broken at $3,242.99, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory $3,460.82 will be the next possible trend-top level and thereby pose a resistance level that may not be broken at the first attempt.
The XAU/USD currency pair holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the currency pair. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $3,215.36 and $3,047.65. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 08, 2025, and so far it has risen 11.71%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Volume fell during the last trading day while the price increased. This causes a divergence and may be considered as an early warning, but it may not be. The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.
On the downside, the currency pair finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $3,110.46 and $3,090.31.There is a natural risk involved when a currency pair is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the currency pair then may fall to the next support level. In this case, XAU/USD finds support just below today's level at $3,110.46. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $3,090.31 and $3,037.41.
In general the currency pair tends to have very controlled movements and therefore the general risk is considered very low. However, be aware of low or falling volume and make sure to keep an eye on the currency pair During the last day, the currency pair moved $73.97 between high and low, or 2.25%. For the last week the currency pair has had daily average volatility of 1.35%
Since the XAU/USD has been rising for 7 days in a row, the risk over the next couple of days has increased. As we cannot be certain with regards to the size of the reaction, we urge caution.
XAU/USD holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this currency pair since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
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