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The XAU/USD currency pair price fell by -0.94% on the last day (Monday, 12th May 2025) from $3,311.12 to $3,279.88. It has now fallen 4 days in a row. During the last trading day the currency pair fluctuated 2.02% from a day low at $3,259.13 to a day high of $3,325.09. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -0.44% for this period.
The currency pair lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the currency pair is expected to rise 17.65% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $3,727.63 and $4,124.57 at the end of this 3-month period.
The XAU/USD currency pair holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the currency pair giving a positive forecast for the currency pair. On further gains, the currency pair will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $3,312.06. On a fall, the currency pair will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $3,210.38. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, May 06, 2025, and so far it has fallen -2.95%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this currency pair may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk. The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.
On the downside, the currency pair finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $3,110.46 and $3,090.31.There is a natural risk involved when a currency pair is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the currency pair then may fall to the next support level. In this case, XAU/USD finds support just below today's level at $3,110.46. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $3,090.31 and $3,037.41.
In general the currency pair tends to have very controlled movements and therefore the general risk is considered very low. However, be aware of low or falling volume and make sure to keep an eye on the currency pair During the last day, the currency pair moved $65.96 between high and low, or 2.02%. For the last week the currency pair has had daily average volatility of 2.65%
XAU/USD holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this currency pair since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Check full XAU/USD forecast and analysis here.