Analog Devices Forecast and Stock Analysis
Technical ADI stock analysis for February 15, 2019.
Analog Devices gained 1.20% in the last trading day, rising from $104.49 to $105.74 , and has now gained 7 days in a row. It is not often that stocks manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 5.17% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell in the last day by -0.82 million shares, and in total, 2.15 million shares bought and sold for approximately $226.98 million. You should take into consideration that a falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes for the next couple of days.
Close price at the end of the last trading day (Friday, 15th Feb 2019) of the ADI stock was $105.74. This is 1.2% more than the trading day before Thursday, 14th Feb 2019.
During day the stock fluctuated 1.48% from a day low at $104.29 to a day high of $105.83.
30 day high of the ADI stock price was $105.83 and low was $85.44.
90 day high was $105.83 and low was $80.08.
52 week high for the Analog Devices - $105.83 and low - $76.62.
Analog Devices lies in the upper part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $105.86 will firstly indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 16.28% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $102.49 and $123.10 at the end of this period.
Analog Devices holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at $103.12 and $93.44. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday January 23, 2019, which indicates further gains until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The stock holds a RSI14 at 79 and is currently being overbought on RSI. This does not have to be a sales signal as many stocks may go both long and hard while being overbought on the RSI. It is therefore important to evaluate the history of the share as it may tell you something about the RSI-sensitiveness.
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $94.75 and $89.02.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Analog Devices finds support just below today's level at $94.75. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $89.02 and $85.52.
This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.55 between high and low, or 1.48%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 1.60%.
The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs. Since the Analog Devices has been rising for 7 days in a row, the risk for the next couple of days has increased. As we cannot be certain with regards to the size of the reaction, we urge caution.
Our recommended stoploss: $101.11 (-4.38%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 79 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from pivot bottom found 17 days ago.)
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Analog Devices holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy-recommendation. At the current level we recommend to hold or accumulate in this position whilst awaiting for further development.