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Sign InAdobe’s Fiscal Q2 Preview: Analysts Confident
Alex Vellor
Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE), the world-famous developer of design software, is gearing up to unveil its fiscal second-quarter earnings report after market hours on Thursday, June 12.
Market indicators suggest that Adobe's stock may fluctuate approximately 6.6% in either direction post-earnings. Such a movement could push the shares up to around $440, marking a three-month high, or drag them down to about $386, which would represent a one-month low.
| Metric | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Expected Fluctuation Post-Earnings | ±6.6% | Smallest since December 2023 |
| Upper Price Target (Post-Earnings) | $440 | Would be a 3-month high |
| Lower Price Target (Post-Earnings) | $386 | Would be a 1-month low |
| Current Stock Price | $412.84 | As of Wednesday, with 0.8% daily drop |
| YTD Performance | -7% | Year-to-date change |
| Average Fluctuation (Last 4 Quarters) | 12.6% | 3 out of 4 quarters had negative movement |
| March 2025 Drop | -14% | Despite record revenue |
| December 2024 Drop | -13% | Due to weak forecast |
| Analyst Ratings | 10 Buy / 6 Hold / 1 Sell | Out of 17 analysts |
| Consensus Price Target | $477 | ~15% upside from current price |
| Morgan Stanley Target | $510 | Higher than consensus, rated "Overweight" |
As of Wednesday, Adobe's stock had dipped by 0.8%, closing at $412.84, reflecting a year-to-date decline of about 7%.
Historically, Adobe has experienced an average post-earnings fluctuation of 12.6% over the last four quarters, though the stock saw declines in three of those instances. If Friday's outcome aligns with the projected 6.6% swing, it would represent the smallest post-earnings reaction since December 2023.
In March, Adobe faced a rough landing as its shares plummeted nearly 14% following a report of record-setting quarterly revenue, primarily due to an outlook that disappointed investors. Similarly, in December, a forecast that fell short of expectations resulted in a more than 13% drop in share value.
Despite these past hiccups, the overarching sentiment among analysts is optimistic regarding Adobe's long-term trajectory. Out of the 17 analysts covering the company, 10 suggest a "buy," six hold a neutral stance, and one recommends a "sell." The consensus price target sits at approximately $477, translating to over 15% potential upside based on Wednesday's closing price.
About The Author
Alex Vellor
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