Ciudad Juárez maquiladoras shed 64,000 jobs in two years as Chihuahua manufacturing FDI plummets 56%

Fabiola Galicia thought she had a career nailed down. Eleven years at a ribbon factory in Ciudad Juárez, a climb from line worker to manager with 30 people under her. Then, in June, her shift was cut to three days. By August the plant - owned by a company that has since filed for bankruptcy protection - was closed. About 300 jobs disappeared with it. Company paperwork cited U.S. tariffs as one factor. Workers say they were told the same.

Ciudad Juárez's maquiladoras - the assembly plants that bring in mostly duty-free inputs and ship finished goods to the U.S. - are bleeding jobs. These factories represent roughly 60% of employment in the city. Between June 2023 and June 2025 the municipality lost more than 64,000 factory roles, including almost 14,000 in the first half of 2025 alone.

There's no single smoking gun. Business leaders point to a stack of problems: a big rise in the regional minimum wage (from 22 pesos an hour in 2019 to 52.48 pesos now), political changes that spooked foreign investors, and slower foreign direct investment. But many executives put tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump at the top of the list - particularly duties on autos, steel, aluminum and certain textiles.

The numbers are striking. Nationally, foreign direct investment fell about 21% in Q1 2025 versus a year earlier. In Chihuahua state, manufacturing FDI plunged roughly 56%, dropping from $800 million to $348 million. The result: companies halting expansion plans, shifting production, or leaving the city altogether.

Some firms have already moved lines out of Juárez. Automotive supplier Lear Corp (NYSE: LEA) said it will transfer certain production to Honduras as part of cost-cutting and footprint reshuffling. Other manufacturers - including a French electronics outfit that plans to shutter its Juárez operations by year-end - cite sustained losses and trade uncertainty.

Local factory owners are feeling the pinch. One hardware maker that produced nails trimmed payroll from around 90 in 2023 to about 20 now. "Clients place an order one day and cancel the next," he says. At the regional maquila association, leaders describe the sector as being in crisis: stung by higher labor costs, wary about judicial and political reforms, and pushed over the edge by tariff volatility.

What this means for markets is layered. FDI declines and plant shutdowns weigh on Mexican manufacturing revenues and related supply chains. Companies that depend on cross-border production face margin pressure where tariffs apply. Some firms are shifting to lower-cost countries or bringing lines to the U.S. to avoid levies - moves that rearrange supply chains and could change revenue mix for suppliers and logistics players.

For traders keeping tabs on Mexican industrials and cross-border suppliers, the raw data is clear: employment in one of Mexico's largest manufacturing hubs has collapsed, investment flows into the region have cooled sharply, and policy uncertainty is driving strategic relocations. The bigger question now is political - how stable will trade policy remain, and how fast will companies adapt their footprints?