Deutsche Bank upgrades Ferrari (RACE) to Buy with €520 target as F80 could add >€450m, push EBIT north of 30%

Deutsche Bank moved Ferrari N.V. (RACE) from "hold" to "buy" and bumped its price target to €520 from €430, pointing to the earnings upside tied to the upcoming F80 supercar and an ambitious set of mid‑term targets expected at the company's Capital Markets Day in October.

The upgrade comes with some concrete math from analyst Nicolai Kempf. He's pencilling in adjusted EBIT margins north of 30% and flags a proposed €3 billion share buyback that would equal roughly 4% of Ferrari's market cap - items Deutsche Bank expects will get center stage in October. The stock ticked up about 1.6% at 05:12 ET (09:12 GMT) after the note hit the wires.

Where the brokerage sees the real kicker is the F80. Kempf estimates the new flagship - positioned at a higher price point than existing models - could add in excess of €450 million in incremental earnings once it's running at full tilt. That's a larger contribution than the exiting Icona Daytona SP3, and, crucially, Kempf says that incremental profit isn't baked into current consensus forecasts.

Deutsche Bank expects this to shift investor attention toward 2026, when the F80's effect should be fully visible, and is modeling roughly a 5% upgrade to 2026 earnings forecasts following the Capital Markets Day updates.

No fireworks in terms of valuation metrics were published in the note beyond the new €520 target, but the move signals Berlin's view that Ferrari's profitability profile and shareholder returns will look meaningfully different under the next product cycle.

If Kempf's math holds, Ferrari's 2026 P&L could look a lot more engine‑room heavy than today's consensus.