Jefferies Calls Adyen's 2026 23% Growth Target a Stretch - €1,835 Price Target Implies 32% Upside

Jefferies is sounding a cautionary note about Adyen (AS: ADYEN) after its takeaways from a FinTech conference in New York: long-term prospects look healthier to the analysts, but the market is piling on expectations for 2026 that, in Jefferies' view, are a stretch.

Adyen has kept its mid-term goal unchanged - net revenue growth somewhere in the low-to-high 20% range - but Jefferies thinks reality will probably sit closer to the low end. The bank pointed to several moving pieces that cloud visibility: the full effect of tariff changes, a soft European macro backdrop, and how well the sales pipeline actually converts into revenue.

On the numbers, Jefferies stayed aligned with company guidance and consensus for 2025, modeling about 21% revenue growth. For 2026 the firm penciled in roughly 23%, similar to Visible Alpha consensus, but warned that the sell-side may be overconfident about Adyen's line of sight into that year.

Adyen trimmed 2025 guidance earlier in the year but says both 2025 and 2026 still fit within its long-term targets. Jefferies flagged a gap between that corporate framing and what the market seems to be pricing in - a classic case of expectations running ahead of operational clarity.

Jefferies reiterated a "buy" call and set a price target of €1,835, which it says implies roughly 32% upside from current levels. Whether that gap closes via faster execution, a reset in sell-side models, or simply price action is the open question.

Jefferies (NYSE: JEF) left the conference with a sunnier long-term view but stuck a flag in the sand on 2026 forecasts: don't assume the path to low- to mid-20% growth is friction-free. Time - and a few quarterly reports - will tell.