Jefferies Lifts AstraZeneca to Buy, Flags $80B Sales Milestone as Within Grasp

Jefferies just boosted AstraZeneca Plc's (LSE: AZN) rating from hold to buy, highlighting renewed confidence in the drugmaker's growth engines. The firm now sees AstraZeneca cruising toward its ambitious goal of $80 billion in annual sales by 2030, a target previously thought to be a stretch. This upgrade reflects rising optimism around key products and pipeline catalysts, sparking fresh investor interest.

AstraZeneca's topline outlook got a serious upgrade, with Jefferies projecting revenues of $58.2 billion in 2025, edging higher to $62.2 billion the following year. These estimates slightly outpace consensus figures but signal solid momentum. Earnings per share forecasts also climbed, with $8.99 anticipated in 2025 and a 13% compound annual growth rate through 2030. That kind of progress is no small potatoes in pharma.

A key highlight is the oncology suite, particularly the immunotherapy Imfinzi, which Jefferies dubs "the gift that keeps on giving." Its projected peak sales jumped to $9 billion, surpassing consensus estimates by a healthy margin. Imfinzi's performance in gastric and bladder cancers, bolstered by strong Phase III study results, underpins this bullish view. Then there's Enhertu, developed alongside Daiichi Sankyo, which is gaining traction not only in HER2-positive but also HER2-low tumors, hinting at wider market penetration than expected.

Biopharma isn't lagging either. Jefferies anticipates a $12 billion revenue haul in 2025, outpacing the $11 billion consensus. Despite the looming loss of Farxiga's U.S. patent protection in October 2025, the drug retains robust sales overseas-75% of its revenue-softening the blow. Plus, baxdrostat shows promise for extending the Farxiga franchise, targeting hypertension and kidney disease, which adds a layer of life-cycle management optimism that could keep revenues robust beyond the patent cliff.

Rare diseases are also capturing attention. AstraZeneca's efzimfotase alfa is seen as a strong follow-up to Strensiq, potentially lifting the Alexion business by about 30%. Phase III trial data expected in 2026 might be an overlooked catalyst breaking onto the scene.

Margins remain a debated point. Jefferies mocks the company's stated 34-36% margin target for 2026 as somewhat "unhelpful," stressing that the real focus should be on sustainable R&D returns combined with solid top-line growth, rather than rigid margin numbers. This pragmatic stance recognizes the complex interplay of investment and profitability in pharma.

While late-stage oncology trials like AVANZAR carry inherent risk-common in drug development-the overall assessment is that AstraZeneca's $80 billion sales target is less bold than skeptics claim. Jefferies sees the company well-positioned to attract renewed investor attention, especially as catalysts emerge over the next year or two.

The new price target jump from 10,900 pence to 15,000 pence (around $100 for its U.S. ADR) reflects the upgraded outlook. That's roughly a 20% upside from here, shaking off recent modest dips in its share price. AstraZeneca could be entering a phase where fundamentals and investor sentiment finally align around its long-term ambitions.

Whether the market fully embraces this brighter forecast remains to be seen. But one thing's clear: AstraZeneca (LSE: AZN) is rewriting its script, betting big on oncology, biopharma, and rare diseases to power growth into the next decade.