Kambi Group Posts Mixed Q4 Results and Sets Modest FY26 EBITA Outlook

Kambi Group PLC released its fourth-quarter financials, showing revenues of €42.7 million. This figure was largely in line with expectations but marked a 4% decrease compared to the same quarter last year.

On the profitability side, EBITA came in at €6.2 million for Q4, representing a 14% drop year-over-year. The reported number missed consensus estimates by 15%, though when stripping out the effects of foreign exchange, EBITA was actually 2% ahead of expectations-a nuance that underscores the currency volatility's heavy hand on reported earnings.

Looking at the full 2025 fiscal year, Kambi's revenues settled at €162.0 million, an 8% decline from 2024 yet closely matching both the company's own guidance and analyst consensus. EBITA took a more pronounced hit, sliding 39% to €15.6 million, trailing consensus by 8% on a reported basis but slightly outperforming when adjusted for FX impact.

Turning to guidance, Kambi expects fiscal 2026 EBITA (excluding FX revaluations) to fall within €20-25 million. The high end of that range banks on no new sports betting tax hitting the Colombian market-a key regulatory variable. Expenses are forecasted to remain fairly steady, with efficiency efforts offsetting inflationary pressures, suggesting management is trying to keep a lid on costs despite revenue challenges.

On the business front, the company inked 15 commercial deals since the start of last quarter, including five turnkey sportsbook partnerships in Q4 alone and two more early in 2026. In January, Kambi launched operations in Ontario, where its AI-driven pricing and trading now accounts for nearly half of all bets-a notable ramp-up in tech integration ahead of the World Cup, which is slated to be fully AI-traded.

Kambi also revealed it repurchased €25.8 million in shares over the past year and ended 2025 with €32.9 million in net cash. Migration projects continue on schedule, with FDJ expected to complete by end of 2026 and LeoVegas wrapping by end of 2027, keeping Kambi's client transition pipeline on track.

While the revenue declines and EBITA compressions are headwinds, the firm's increased AI adoption and steady commercial wins paint a more complex picture. The awaited outcome of the Colombian tax legislation will likely play a big role in shaping next year's operating profit.

The company's share buyback activity and strong cash position provide some buffer, but the market will want to see consistent growth return beyond the impact of currency and regulatory uncertainties.