Telenor Revises 2026 Forecast Amid Nordic Market Slump and Bangladesh Challenges

Telenor lowered its full-year projections after second-quarter results came in below expectations, primarily due to sluggish performance in its Nordic operations coupled with persistent difficulties in Bangladesh. The Norwegian telecom giant now anticipates flat to slightly negative organic adjusted EBITDA growth for 2026, down from the earlier forecast of flat to low single-digit increases.

Free cash flow before mergers and acquisitions was adjusted to approximately NOK 10 billion, narrowing the previous range that extended up to NOK 11 billion. The company also trimmed growth expectations for both service revenue and EBITDA within the Nordic segment, now expecting only flat to low single-digit increases, a downgrade from its prior more optimistic outlook.

Benedicte Schilbred Fasmer, Telenor's CEO, pointed to a combination of slower than projected revenue growth in Norway and Finland, elevated operating expenses, contract-related setbacks, and a tough macroeconomic climate in Bangladesh as key contributors to the disappointing Q2 showing. She noted that the benefits from the ongoing transformation initiatives should become more apparent as the year progresses.

In Q2, adjusted EBITDA slipped 9% year-over-year to NOK 7.99 billion from NOK 8.78 billion, while total reported revenue decreased by 5.1% to NOK 18.14 billion. The group's net income attributable to shareholders took a more significant hit, plunging 32.3% to NOK 2.52 billion compared to the same period last year.

The Nordic market softness reflects wider challenges in mature telecom sectors where competition and regulatory pressures weigh heavily, while the Bangladesh business faces a complicated operating environment compounded by macroeconomic factors. This tough mix has pressured overall profitability and forced the company to recalibrate its financial expectations for 2026.

Amid these headwinds, the transformation program, which aims to streamline operations and boost efficiency, remains a focal point for management. However, the payoff from these efforts is expected to take some time before meaningfully impacting financial results.

Looking ahead, the trimmed guidance signals a more cautious stance from Telenor as it navigates through the uneven terrain posed by regional market dynamics and external economic pressures. The real question is how quickly the company can adapt its strategy and regain momentum in its core markets.

For a telecom giant that has seen steady growth in years past, these developments suggest a period of recalibration may be on the horizon. Whether this becomes a temporary setback or marks a shift in the company's growth trajectory remains uncertain.