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What You Need to Know 15 Minutes Before Markets Open

Alex Vellor
09:15am, Wednesday, Dec 18, 2024
Photo by Anna Nekrashevich on pexels.com

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped into a rare nine-day losing streak, its longest since 1978. While the broader market shows resilience, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both up for the month, the Dow is down over 3%. Tuesday’s dip added to this downward momentum, raising questions about what’s driving the decline.

The Dow's struggles stand in stark contrast to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which have largely weathered recent market volatility. Analysts point to the Dow’s makeup as a possible reason. Unlike the other indices, it gives more weight to higher-priced stocks, so declines in a few key names can have an outsized impact. Recent pressure on healthcare, industrials, and consumer staples — sectors that make up much of the Dow — is likely weighing on the index.

While a streak of this length grabs headlines, it may not signal broader trouble. The larger market, as seen in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, is faring far better.

Pre-marker Movers:

Company Ticker Price Change Reason
General Mills GIS -4% Targeted organic sales for the full year at the lower end of ranges due to higher promotional investments; reduced top end of earnings forecast.
Birkenstock BIRK +7.9% (premarket) Revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter topped expectations.
Target TGT +1% Added to the tactical outperform list at Evercore ISI.
Best Buy BBY +1% Added to the tactical outperform list at Evercore ISI.
Heico HEI -5.7% Sales fell short of estimates, driven by a decline across the electronic technologies group.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet OLLI +3% Citi double-upgraded the retailer to buy, removing the stock’s only negative rating.

All Eyes on the Federal Reserve

Adding to market tension is the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates. Wall Street widely expects the Fed to cut rates by a quarter point, bringing the benchmark borrowing rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. While 93% of respondents in a CNBC survey expect the cut, only 63% believe it’s the right move.

Lower rates can support growth by encouraging borrowing, but with inflation still a concern, some worry it may do more harm than good. Investors will be closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for any sign of future rate policy. If the Fed signals a pause on further cuts, markets may rally. If the central bank hints at ongoing rate reductions, it could signal concern about the economy's health.

General Mills’ Profit Warning Hits Stock

Shares of General Mills (NYSE:GIS) slid 4% in premarket trading on Wednesday after the company slashed its annual profit outlook.

The maker of Cheerios and Pillsbury is under pressure as shoppers opt for cheaper, store-brand alternatives. To win them back, General Mills has ramped up promotional spending, offering price cuts and bigger marketing pushes for its top brands.

These efforts are helping to boost sales volumes. In the most recent quarter, the company's sales hit $5.24 billion, beating Wall Street estimates of $5.14 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.40, above forecasts of $1.22. Importantly, quarterly volumes rose 3 percentage points, reversing a 4-point drop from a year earlier. But the cost of promotions is cutting into profits.

General Mills now expects full-year adjusted profit to fall 1% to 3%, compared to its earlier forecast of flat to down 1%. The company’s renewed focus on brand marketing, particularly for Pillsbury products, is driving up selling, general, and administrative expenses. While these investments aim to fuel long-term brand strength, they hurt margins in the short term.

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