First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF Forecast
Evaluation of First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Apr 25, 2024)
The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF price fell by -0.733% on the last day (Thursday, 25th Apr 2024) from $54.58 to $54.18. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.55% from a day low at $53.53 to a day high of $54.36. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -3.2% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -129 thousand shares and in total, 442 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $23.94 million.
The ETF lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -5.77% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $49.39 and $53.04 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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CIBR Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 2.95%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the ETF giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $55.60. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the short-term average at $53.53. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity finds support from accumulated volume at $53.26 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.83 (1.55%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.67%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (CIBR) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 26th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 26th we expect First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF to open at $54.02, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $53.25 and $55.11, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.93 (+/-1.71%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.42% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $54.33 (0.28%) than the support at $53.26 (1.70%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF ETF A Buy?
First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.264 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF of Friday, April 26, 2024
| Fair opening price April 26, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $54.02 ( 0.289%) | $54.18 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CIBR
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 54.85 | 1.24 % | |
| R2 | 54.54 | 0.658 % | ||
| R1 | 54.34 | 0.296 % | ||
| Current price: | 54.18 | |||
| Support | S1 | 53.71 | -0.87 % | |
| S2 | 53.51 | -1.24 % | ||
| S3 | 53.19 | -1.82 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 57.84 | 6.76 % | |
| R2 | 57.83 | 6.74 % | ||
| R1 | 54.33 | 0.277 % | ||
| Current price | 54.18 | |||
| Support | S1 | 53.26 | -1.70% | |
| S2 | 52.92 | -2.33% | ||
| S3 | 52.83 | -2.49% |
CIBR Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.0237 | 0.0420% |
| 2 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.0352 | 0.0654% |
| 3 | Sep 21, 2023 | Sep 22, 2023 | Sep 29, 2023 | $0.0090 | 0.0198% |
| 4 | Jun 26, 2023 | Jun 27, 2023 | Jun 30, 2023 | $0.0530 | 0.117% |
| 5 | Dec 22, 2022 | Dec 23, 2022 | Dec 30, 2022 | $0.0950 | 0.245% |
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