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Weekly Commentary: The Loss Of Moneyness

10:38am, Sunday, 15'th Mar 2020
It was as if global markets pulled elements from the 1994 bond market dislocation, 1997's Asian Bubble collapses, the 1998 Russian/LTCM fiasco, and the 2008 mar

Stay Cool, Calm, And Collected

05:51am, Sunday, 15'th Mar 2020
We continue to believe that the worst of the coronavirus will be behind us by the end of the second quarter and growth will slowly resume and accelerate through
Before the 2008 banking crisis, banks in need of liquidity borrowed excess reserves from each other in the fed funds market. But after 2008, banks were reluctan
In addition to targeted economic policies and fiscal measures, the right monetary and financial stability policies will be vital to help buttress the global eco

Positive 2020 Outlook For Emerging Markets Debt

08:53pm, Wednesday, 11'th Mar 2020
A number of factors lead us to think the outlook for emerging markets debt is positive. Last year's performance was clearly above average (primarily driven by f
If the Fed does not reduce interest rates, along with the fall in the equilibrium rate, then monetary policy will get unintentionally tighter. When there's a di

Economic Outlook Update: ILU Trajectories

03:39pm, Tuesday, 10'th Mar 2020
For starters, the rapidly deteriorating economic outlook, the recent sell-off in risk assets, and the rally in rates in response to the spread of the coronaviru

Goldmoney 2020 Outlook Roundtable

12:58pm, Tuesday, 10'th Mar 2020
The credit cycle: what can it tell us about the current global situation? Central bank actions to counter stalling economies and their room for manoeuvre. Syste

Shifting Wealth In Times Of The Coronavirus

11:20am, Tuesday, 10'th Mar 2020
As a result of Shifting Wealth, China plays a far greater role in global output, trade, tourism and commodity markets than only 20 years ago. In its latest Inte
The economic damage being wrought worldwide by the coronavirus is the black swan the system never saw coming. Bankruptcies are set to ripple across industries l

Global Economy's Titanic: Meet Your Iceberg

02:29pm, Monday, 09'th Mar 2020
Years of easy credit, easy money. The two factors are closely correlated, but are also somewhat distinct. There are additional problems hidden within A and even

Look At The Big Picture... Buy Equities

05:28pm, Sunday, 08'th Mar 2020
The DXY Index and US 10yr Treasury rate have been falling together since mid-Feb 2020. This may signal the beginning of a reversal of global capital flows into

Market Commentary: The Modern-Day Bank Run

12:16pm, Sunday, 08'th Mar 2020
In an alarmingly volatile week, the S&P 500 recovered 0.6% (down 8.0% y-t-d) and the Dow rallied 1.8% (down 9.4%). Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the wee
We have a light economic calendar with little insight into recent events.  That is all that Mr. Market cares about. Last week's trading involved wild swings tha

2 Sides Of Every Coin

05:58am, Sunday, 08'th Mar 2020
Our base case remains that coronavirus gets contained during the second quarter. Even as coronavirus gets controlled, we expect that there will be significant c
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