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At Close: Jul 31, 2026

TIPS Spreads Are A Big Problem

02:33pm, Thursday, 19'th Mar 2020
In the entire investment universe, there is no asset that measures risk-free ex-ante real interest rates more accurately than TIPS. Now, it is true that the TIP

For Bonds It's Probably 'Game Over'

01:23pm, Monday, 16'th Mar 2020
The tremendous bull bond market run from 1981 is probably now ending. When it comes to bonds, deflationary economic trends are misleading. The Fed and other maj
Market turmoil has created incredible volatility, even for mundane investments like U.S. Treasurys. Friday's real yield of 0.04% would have been attractive, but

Amid Bond Rally, The TIP ETF Got Crushed. Why?

04:35pm, Thursday, 12'th Mar 2020
The TIP ETF has lost more than 6% of its value in a few days, and is falling sharply again this morning. A key reason is that inflation expectations are plummet
On March 3, the U.S. Federal Reserve made a surprise emergency cut in interest rates taking the Fed Funds rates down 50 basis points to a range of 1.00%-1.25%.

The Fed Needs To Cut Rates By 50 Bps

09:51am, Tuesday, 03'rd Mar 2020
To judge by current financial market pricing, the market is effectively signaling the Fed that a cut of 50 bps is called for, and it needs to happen ASAP. 5-yr

Inflation Has Averaged 2.14% Over The Past 4 Years

07:24am, Wednesday, 26'th Feb 2020
I'd like to revisit some criticism I got in the comment section over the past 4 years, when I began to argue that TIPS spreads seemed slightly biased by a liqui

Quantifying The Pandemic Panic

06:27am, Wednesday, 26'th Feb 2020
Panic is spreading throughout global markets. Unfortunately, it's difficult to know whether this will be a true pandemic or just a panic. By some measures we ha
The Treasury will offer a new 10-year TIPS at auction Thursday. Real yields are currently running at about 0.09%. TIPS have had a great run over the last year,
Gasoline prices, up 7.9% in 2019, and shelter costs, up 3.2%, were major factors in 2019's moderately high inflation. December inflation, however, fell slightly
Boomers are going to get hurt and don't know it. The world debt crisis cannot be ignored. The Fed is out of ammunition.
Corporate credit has been rallying strongly for the past several weeks. Investment grade corporate bond spreads are near the tightest level in 20 years. The lab

Market Expert: Desire For Bonds is Far From Over

01:00pm, Thursday, 21'st Nov 2019
The feeding frenzy on bonds in 2019 saw an unprecedented appetite for safe haven debt like Treasury notes, which subsequently pushed yields down to record levels. To some market experts, that appetite
With the Federal Reserve backing a looser monetary policy, bond ETF investors will have to contend with an eventual rise in inflation.
With the Federal Reserve backing a looser monetary policy, bond ETF investors will have to contend with an eventual rise in inflation. Market measures of inflation expectations have increased in rece
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