Apple Stock Shows Bearish Trend Amidst Lukewarm Reception and Potential Manufacturing Adjustments

Technical Analysis

Apple Inc.'s stock (ticker: AAPL) experienced a slight decrease (-2.34%) in the last trading session, closing at $171.96 on September 26, 2023, with a trading volume of 37.97 million shares, lower than its average volume of 58.15 million shares. The company's market cap stands at $2.65 trillion.

Over the short term, AAPL's stock price is trending below its 50-day moving average of $182.66, indicating a bearish sentiment. The 50-day moving average is a standard technical indicator that investors use to analyze price trends. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 32, which could imply that the stock is nearing an oversold condition.

However, the stock is trading above its 200-day moving average of $165.81, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias.

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), a momentum oscillator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price, is -0.73. The negative figure indicates that the shorter-term 12-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is below the longer-term 26-day EMA, implying negative momentum.

The stock shows no immediate support but has resistance at $177.56, which should be closely watched.

Fundamental Analysis

Regarding fundamentals, Apple's EPS (Earnings Per Share) is $5.96. The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio stands at 28.46, which may be viewed as slightly high. However, for a growth-oriented technology company like Apple, a higher PE ratio is not uncommon.

The discounted cash flow (DCF) value is close to the last closing price at $171.07, which could signify the stock is fairly valued.

Sell-side analyst target prices for Apple's stock vary significantly, ranging from $110 (low) to $240 (high). The consensus target price is $189.18, significantly above the current price level. Meanwhile, the target price median stands at $195.

The analyst consensus recommendation for the stock is 'Buy', based on the feedback from 22 analysts. 10 analysts suggested holding the stock, while only 1 recommended selling.

Recent Market News

Recent news reports suggest upcoming competition for Apple in the form of Meta's new Quest 3 VR headset. Furthermore, market reactions to Apple's newly launched iPhone 15 appear to be lukewarm, with possible reductions in unit production that could negatively impact sales.

However, there's speculation that the delay in utilizing some of Taiwan Semi Manufacturing's most advanced chipmaking capabilities in some of its products may open a door for Intel, which might benefit Apple if Intel's new manufacturing abilities prove effective.

Stock Prediction and Final Evaluation

For the next trading day (September 27, 2023), if Apple's stock continues to follow its current bearish short-term trend, and given its technical indicators and recent news, the stock price could experience slight downward pressure.

Over the upcoming week, it's crucial to monitor how investors react to ongoing news such as the possible impact of the iPhone 15's lukewarm reception and potential manufacturing adjustments with TSM and Intel. These factors might add some volatility to the stock price.

Given the blend of its longer-term bullish trend and its current attractive valuation in line with the DCF, alongside a 'Buy' recommendation consensus from analysts, Apple's stock can be categorized as a 'Hold' for long-term growth-oriented investors. However, due to the short-term bearish sentiment, investors might find lower entry points in the upcoming days.

Please note that this analysis does not constitute investment advice, and investors are advised to conduct their own thorough researches or consult with a qualified investment professional before making any investment decisions.