Archer Aviation (ACHR) Shows Signs of Short-Term Strength Amid Key Technical and Fundamental Developments

Technical Analysis

ACHR closed at $10.20 on June 18, 2025, up 2.82%, rebounding near the intraday high of $10.28 and holding above the 50-day moving average of $9.47 and well above the 200-day average at $7.31. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47 indicates a neutral momentum, neither oversold nor overbought, suggesting consolidation ahead. The MACD remains negative (-0.12), reflecting lingering bearish pressure, but the recent price breakout above the short-term moving average hints at potential short-term strength. Average volume at 31.03 million versus actual volume of 30.02 million shows stable trading activity. Key support is positioned at $9.99, just under current levels, with resistance near $11.16, marking the immediate upside target range.

For the next trading day (June 20), an expected bullish bias is likely if volume sustains and the price holds above $10.00. A breakthrough above $11.16 would confirm short-term momentum, while failure to hold support could see a retest of the $9.99 level. Over the upcoming week, the recent strategic announcements and technical base formation position ACHR for a potential lift targeting the $11.50-$12.00 level as investors digest new fundamentals.

Fundamental Analysis

Archer Aviation’s market cap stands at $5.60 billion, reflecting significant investor interest in the eVTOL and urban air mobility sector. The company remains unprofitable, with a TTM EPS of -$1.23 and a negative P/E of -8.29, indicating ongoing operating losses consistent with early-stage aerospace ventures. The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation at approximately $2.01 per share reveals a large gap between market price and intrinsic value, underscoring heightened speculative expectations and growth-driven premium.

Recent corporate developments reinforce fundamental momentum: the partnership with Jetex to leverage global private terminals expands Archer’s commercial infrastructure presence internationally. The formation of a five-country regulatory alliance streamlining eVTOL certification reduces bureaucratic risk and shortens time to market, enhancing long-term scalability. A significant capital infusion and multi-national agreements position Archer as a leading contender in electric air taxis, catalyzing growth prospects ahead of its planned commercial service rollout later this year.

Consensus analyst targets promote a high of $13.50, with broad buy-side sentiment (7 buys, 2 holds) reinforcing positive market outlook amid accelerating structural catalysts. The upcoming earnings announcement on August 6, 2025, will be a critical event, expected to clarify financial trajectory and operational milestones.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Investment Potential

The current DCF valuation suggests the intrinsic value is approximately 80% below the market price, highlighting considerable risk if anticipated growth does not materialize. However, the transformational nature of eVTOL technology and Archer’s leading strategic initiatives could rapidly close this gap provided successful commercial deployment and regulatory approvals. Long-term investment viability hinges on execution risk and sector adoption pace, with significant upside if the company captures a meaningful share of the urban air mobility market.

Investors desiring exposure to emerging clean aviation technologies would view ACHR as an innovative growth asset, albeit with high volatility and extended timelines to profitability. Sustained capital access and regulatory progress are essential for intrinsic value to converge with market pricing.

Overall Evaluation

ACHR exhibits robust fundamental catalysts validating near-term price appreciation potential, supported by a clean technical base above key moving averages. The strategic partnerships and regulatory advances strengthen the company’s competitive moat in a nascent industry. The elevated valuation relative to intrinsic metrics entails substantial execution risk but also considerable upside optionality.

As such, ACHR aligns more with a Buy candidate from a growth and momentum perspective for investors targeting emerging technologies with strong sector tailwinds, balanced against persistent negative earnings and the uncertainty inherent to commercializing new aerospace solutions. The stock is likely to outperform in the immediate trading day and potentially the upcoming week, provided support levels hold and volume sustains. Long-term success is contingent on operational milestones and regulatory progress translating into commercial viability.