Archer Aviation Faces Volatility as Technical Support Holds Amid FAA Certification Prospects

Technical Analysis

ACHR closed at $9.93 on June 25, 2025, down 7.46% from the previous session, hitting its low of the day. The stock is currently testing short-term support near $9.92, with immediate resistance at $9.99. The 50-day moving average sits slightly below the current price at $9.73, providing modest near-term support, while the 200-day moving average at $7.45 signals a longer-term bullish trend persisting despite recent weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 52 indicates a neutral momentum stance, neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD remains negative over three months at -0.16, reflecting mild bearish pressure. Average True Range (ATR) is elevated at 8.16, suggesting heightened volatility. Trading volume fell to 16.4 million from an average of 32.2 million, implying reduced participation on the sell-off day.

For the next trading day (June 26), the stock could stabilize near support at $9.92, with potential for a technical bounce toward resistance at $9.99 if volume picks up. Over the upcoming week, expect range-bound trading between $9.30 (stop-loss level) and $10.00, barring news catalysts. Confirmation of FAA certification progress or further contract developments could provide upward momentum to extend gains toward yearly highs around $13.92.

Fundamental Analysis

Archer Aviation remains in the development phase of its innovative electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft, with the Midnight model entering pilot production and scheduled for international deliveries in H2 2025. FAA-type certification by late 2025 is a pivotal catalyst for commercial service rollout in 2026. This milestone is crucial given the nascent stage of the eVTOL market and dependency on regulatory approvals.

The company’s partnership with Anduril to develop a defense-grade hybrid VTOL targets high-margin government contracts, diversifying revenue streams beyond commercial air taxi services. This dual-track business model could drive profitability long-term but remains at an early stage with significant execution risks.

Financially, the stock is operating with a trailing twelve months (TTM) EPS of -$1.23 and a negative price-to-earnings ratio of -8.32, reflecting ongoing losses. The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation stands at approximately $2.01, indicating that the current price of $9.93 is well above intrinsic value from a pure cash flow perspective. This discrepancy highlights the market’s valuation of potential future growth and technological leadership rather than present earnings.

Consensus analyst targets cluster at $13.50, reflecting optimism toward the company’s growth prospects and successful scale-up. The majority of analyst opinion is bullish, with 7 buys and 2 holds, and zero sell ratings.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Potential

Current intrinsic value metrics suggest a large premium priced into ACHR, attributable to the growth story embedded in the eVTOL sector. Long-term investment appeal hinges on Archer’s ability to achieve FAA certification, successfully transition from prototype to commercial production, and capture meaningful market share in urban and defense aviation niches.

Risks include regulatory delays, competitive pressures from rivals like Eve (EVEX), and capital intensity before sustainable profitability. Successful government contracts could provide margin stability and mitigate commercial market adoption risks.

Given the innovation timeline and technological exposure, ACHR is positioned as a speculative growth asset with potential for substantial appreciation if corporate and regulatory milestones are met. Long-term investors should monitor execution milestones and upcoming earnings on August 14, 2025, for operational updates.

Overall Evaluation

ACHR currently trades below recent highs but remains above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, indicating a cautiously constructive technical setup amid volatility. The fundamental backdrop reflects significant upside potential tied to FAA certification and new contract wins, offset by current negative earnings and valuation premiums relative to intrinsic value.

Considering these factors, ACHR qualifies as a Hold candidate. The stock’s risk/reward profile favors investors with a higher risk tolerance and a long horizon given developmental stage dynamics, while near-term technical signals suggest limited downside beyond current support. Monitoring regulatory developments and trading volume trends will be critical to reassessing positioning.