Evaluation of SPY ETF downgraded after the last trading session.

The SPY ETF price gained 0.93% on the last trading day (Friday, 11th Nov 2022), rising from $394.49 to $398.17. It has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.46% from a day low at $393.61 to a day high of $399.34. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 2.35% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -46 million shares and in total, 67 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $26.68 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -10.58% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $304.35 and $356.04 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

The SPY ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $382.28 and $373.04. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, October 12, 2022, and so far it has risen 11.67%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $373.20 and $362.79.There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, SPY finds support just below today's level at $373.20. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $362.79 and $357.18.

This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $5.73 (1.46%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.84%.

SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.