Spdr S&p 500 Etf ETF Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Apr 25, 2025 Gain 7.92%

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF price increased by 0.652% on the last trading day (Friday, 16th May 2025), moving up from $590.38 to $594.23. This marks its fifth consecutive day of gains. It will be interesting to see if it can maintain this upward trend or if it will take a brief pause in the coming days. During the last trading session, the ETF experienced a fluctuation of 0.88%, with a daily low of $589.28 and a daily high of $594.48. The price has increased in 7 out of the last 10 days, showing an overall rise of 4.85% over the past two weeks. The trading volume surged on the previous day alongside the price increase, reflecting a positive technical indicator, with 3 million more shares exchanged compared to the prior day. In total, 74 million shares were traded, amounting to around $43.86 billion.

Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -5.53% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $454.74 and $561.39 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the ETF price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

SPY Signals & Forecast

Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $581.57 and $549.50. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 08, 2025, and so far it has risen 19.69%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for SPDR S&P 500 ETF

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $548.62 and $505.28. There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, SPDR S&P 500 finds support just below today's level at $548.62. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $505.28 and $504.38.

This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $5.20 between high and low, or 0.88%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.84%.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETF may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: $574.74 (-3.28%) (This ETF has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 86 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 27 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (SPY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 19th

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 19th we expect SPDR S&P 500 ETF to open at $592.66, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $584.58 and $603.88, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$9.65 (+/-1.62%) up or down from last closing price. If SPDR S&P 500 ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.25% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $594.33 (0.02%) than the support at $548.62 (7.68%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is SPDR S&P 500 ETF ETF A Buy?

Several short-term signals are positive, despite the ETF being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for ETF to perform well in the short-term.

Current score: 3.164 Buy Candidate Unchanged

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on May 19, 2025 - $592.66 ( 0.264%).