Evaluation of SPY ETF downgraded after the last trading session.

The SPY ETF price gained 1.24% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 15th May 2024), rising from $523.29 to $529.78. It has now gained 10 days in a row. It is not often that ETFS manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.93% from a day low at $525.18 to a day high of $530.08. The price has risen in 10 of the last 10 days and is up by 5.93% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 11 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 59 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $31.48 billion.

The ETF has broken the horizontal trend up. Breaks like this are often followed by swift and strong movements, and any correction down to the breakline at approximately. $526.18 is considered to be a "second chance" to hit a potential runner. It is, however, important that volume does follow the price as false breaks may appear and it may move back into the horizontal trend. Based on the rectangle-formation theory the ETF is predicted to reach $555.61 sometime during the next 3 months.

The SPY ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $521.33 and $512.55. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 6.99%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $523.07 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $4.90 between high and low, or 0.93%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.678%.

The SPY ETF is extremely overbought on RSI14 (78). Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but since the ETF has broken the trend up, the chance for a major correction due to high RSI is very small as the ETF will find support at the trend broken.Since the SPY has been rising for 10 days in a row, the risk over the next couple of days has increased. As we cannot be certain with regards to the size of the reaction, we urge caution.

SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.