Evaluation of SPY ETF downgraded after the last trading session

The SPY ETF price fell by -0.90% on the last day (Monday, 7th Oct 2024) from $572.98 to $567.80. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.94% from a day low at $566.63 to a day high of $571.96. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -0.33% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -524 thousand shares and in total, 42 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $23.68 billion.

The ETF lies in the upper part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $575.68 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 4.21% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $555.79 and $599.89 at the end of this 3-month period.

The SPY ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $570.21. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $561.86. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, September 30, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.06%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $543.01 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $5.33 between high and low, or 0.94%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.97%.

SPY holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.