Green day on Monday for SPY

The SPY ETF price gained 0.104% on the last trading day (Monday, 24th Apr 2023), rising from $412.20 to $412.63. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.599% from a day low at $410.60 to a day high of $413.06. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.74% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -15 million shares and in total, 58 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $24.10 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The ETFis at the upper part of a horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $418.24 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected.Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect SPY ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $387.64 and $419.87 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, April 18, 2023, and so far it has fallen -0.381%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some positive signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SPY ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term moving average at approximately $413.06. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $402.30. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $389.28 and $385.91.There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, SPY finds support just below today's level at $389.28. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $385.91 and $385.36.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $2.46 between high and low, or 0.599%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.693%.

Several of the signals/indicators are negative, and we believe that this will affect on the development for the next days and maybe possible weeks. However, over time, we think that today's level holds a possible buying opportunity and that the price will be higher during or at the end of this 3-month period.