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The QQQ ETF price gained 0.511% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 19th Dec 2023), rising from $407.08 to $409.16. It has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.475% from a day low at $407.35 to a day high of $409.28. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 5.65% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -11 million shares and in total, 35 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $14.31 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF lies in the upper part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $413.94 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising.Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 13.55% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $423.17 and $470.02 at the end of this 3-month period.
The QQQ ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $403.27 and $385.52. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, October 26, 2023, and so far it has risen 19.06%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $364.70 and $359.97.There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, QQQ finds support just below today's level at $364.70. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $359.97 and $343.66.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $1.93 between high and low, or 0.475%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.98%.
The QQQ ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETFS may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for QQQ ETF to perform well in the short-term.
Check full QQQ forecast and analysis here.