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Microsoft stock downgraded to Sell Candidate, 3 months ago


The Microsoft stock price gained 1.52% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 2nd Feb 2022), rising from $308.76 to $313.46. During the day the stock fluctuated 2.02% from a day low at $308.88 to a day high of $315.12. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.34% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -5 million shares and in total, 35 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $11.12 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

On Jan 20, 2022 "Citigroup" gave "$407.00 - $376.00" rating for MSFT. The price target was set to $308.58+1.7%.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled.Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -10.41% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $255.16 and $293.17 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.


A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, January 25, 2022, and so far it has risen 8.66%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Microsoft stock holds a buy signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term moving average at $317.86. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $303.79. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal.

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $296.71 and $296.37.There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Microsoft finds support just below today's level at $296.71. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $296.37 and $288.49.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $6.24 between high and low, or 2.02%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 2.74%.

Microsoft holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.

Check full Microsoft forecast and analysis here.