Microsoft Stock Forecast

Buy candidate since Dec 04, 2024

The Microsoft stock price gained 1.44% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 4th Dec 2024), rising from $431.20 to $437.42. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.60% from a day low at $432.63 to a day high of $439.55. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 4.7% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 8 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 23 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $9.95 billion.

The stockis at the upper part of a horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $438.26 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Microsoft stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $405.69 and $437.76 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stock seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stock turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

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MSFT Signals & Forecast

Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The Microsoft stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $427.55 and $421.44. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, October 31, 2024, and so far it has risen 7.65%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Microsoft stock

Microsoft finds support from accumulated volume at $435.27 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $6.92 between high and low, or 1.60%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.67%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $414.14 (-5.32%) (This stock has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 23 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (MSFT) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 5th

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 5th we expect Microsoft Corporation to open at $436.53, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $429.50 and $445.34, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$7.92 (+/-1.81%) up or down from last closing price. If Microsoft Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.62% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $438.69 (0.29%) than the support at $435.27 (0.49%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Microsoft Corporation stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity, as there is a fair chance for Microsoft stock to perform well in the short-term period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 2.997 Buy Candidate Upgraded

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on December 5, 2024 - $436.53 ( 0.203%).