Green day on Wednesday for Microsoft stock after gaining 1.12%
(Updated on May 25, 2022)

The Microsoft stock price gained 1.12% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 25th May 2022), rising from $259.62 to $262.52. During the day the stock fluctuated 2.90% from a day low at $257.13 to a day high of $264.58. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 0.76% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -472 thousand shares and in total, 29 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $7.49 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -12.04% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $220.43 and $256.34 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

Signals & Forecast

There are mixed signals in the stock today. The Microsoft stock holds a buy signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term moving average at $275.17. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $258.48. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, May 20, 2022, and so far it has risen 3.94%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss

Microsoft finds support from accumulated volume at $260.55 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $7.45 between high and low, or 2.90%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 3.28%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 26th

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday 26th we expect Microsoft Corporation to open at $261.41, and during day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $252.94 and $272.10, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$9.58 (+/-3.65%) up or down from last closing price. If Microsoft Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 7.30% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $260.55 (0.75%) than the resistance at $264.58 (0.78%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Microsoft Corporation stock A Buy?

Microsoft holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -2.038

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