Microsoft Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jul 09, 2026 Gain 0.19%

The Microsoft stock price increased 0.193% on the last trading day (Friday, 10th Jul 2026), rising from $384.36 to $385.10. Throughout the last trading day, the stock experienced fluctuations of 2.72%, with a day low at $381.50 and a day high of $391.88. The price has increased in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 9.15% over the past 2 weeks. Volume decreased on the last day by -6 million shares, with a total of 24 million shares traded for approximately $9.29 billion. It is important to note that declining volume in the face of rising prices can indicate divergence and may serve as an early warning of potential changes in the coming days.

The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -9.11% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $314.08 and $400.76 at the end of this 3-month period.

MSFT Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, June 25, 2026, and so far it has risen 9.15%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Microsoft stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $386.16 and $398.89. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Microsoft stock

Microsoft finds support from accumulated volume at $379.40 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $10.38 between high and low, or 2.72%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.15%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (MSFT) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 13th

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 13th we expect Microsoft Corporation to open at $386.16, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $379.25 and $390.95, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$11.71 (+/-3.09%) up or down from last closing price. If Microsoft Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.09% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $379.40 (1.48%) than the resistance at $407.78 (5.89%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Dividend Warning For MSFT

Dividend coming up for MSFT: Ex-dividend date (Thursday 20th August, 2026) is 37 days away. The dividend is $0.91.

Is Microsoft Corporation stock A Buy?

Microsoft holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -1.026 Sell Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 13, 2026 - $386.16 ( 0.275%).

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