Microsoft stock downgraded to Strong Sell Candidate
(Updated on Sep 30, 2022)

Sell candidate since 2022-09-23 Loss -2.11% PDF

The Microsoft stock price fell by -1.94% on the last day (Friday, 30th Sep 2022) from $237.50 to $232.90. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.36% from a day low at $232.73 to a day high of $240.54. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -4.84% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 8 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 36 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $8.31 billion.

The stock lies in the lower of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $231.28 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -7.91% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $212.99 and $258.62 at the end of this 3-month period.

Signals & Forecast

Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Microsoft stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $237.75 and $260.41. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, August 15, 2022, and so far it has fallen -20.64%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $7.81 between high and low, or 3.36%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.80%.

Microsoft is oversold on RSI14 (15). Some stocks may fall long and hard while being oversold on RSI, but stocks that are heavily oversold on RSI often pose good re-bounce chance and played well it can be a buy candidate.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 3rd

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 3rd we expect Microsoft Corporation to open at $235.39, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $226.46 and $239.34, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$6.44 (+/-2.77%) up or down from last closing price. If Microsoft Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.53% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $11.84 (5.08%) our system find the risk reward not very attractive.

Is Microsoft Corporation stock A Buy?

Microsoft holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Strong Sell candidate.

Current score: -5.852

Strong Sell Candidate Downgraded

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