Microsoft Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Apr 24, 2025 Gain 23.26%

The Microsoft stock price fell by -0.591% on the last day (Friday, 20th Jun 2025) from $480.24 to $477.40. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.38% from a day low at $476.88 to a day high of $483.44. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 2.08% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 19 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 36 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $17.42 billion.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 34.91% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $600.85 and $663.77 at the end of this 3-month period.

MSFT Signals & Forecast

The Microsoft stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $477.32 and $457.79. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, June 18, 2025, and so far it has fallen -0.591%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Microsoft stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $425.40 and $390.49. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Microsoft finds support just below today's level at $425.40. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $390.49 and $359.84.

This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $6.56 (1.38%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.26%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $464.20 (-2.76%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)

Trading Expectations (MSFT) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 23rd

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 23rd we expect Microsoft Corporation to open at $479.24, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $470.63 and $484.17, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$6.77 (+/-1.42%) up or down from last closing price. If Microsoft Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.84% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $478.87 (0.31%) than the support at $425.40 (10.89%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Dividend Warning For MSFT

Dividend coming up for MSFT: Ex-dividend date (Thursday 21st August, 2025) is 61 days away. The dividend is $0.83.

Is Microsoft Corporation stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Microsoft stock to perform well in the short-term.

Current score: 1.312 Buy Candidate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 23, 2025 - $479.24 ( 0.385%).

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